• Oil Scene: From WTI to ASCI -- oil markets have traversed some real distance Nov 7th, 2009, 23:44 - KRT (Length: 6262)
• More than $50 million in credits awarded to pipeline company Nov 7th, 2009, 19:58 - KRT (Length: 4607)
• Offerings Weekly Round-Up Nov 7th, 2009, 19:06 - ITR (Length: 3754)
• GOP's Graham steps out on a limb on climate change Nov 7th, 2009, 18:07 - KNS (Length: 9095)
• BRIEF: Texas sales tax receipts fall 12.8 percent Nov 7th, 2009, 17:27 - KRT (Length: 1256)
• Profits decline by 38% at NFG: Oil, gas prices fall; company is upbeat Nov 7th, 2009, 14:36 - KRT (Length: 3997)
• Forest Misses on Lower Sales Nov 7th, 2009, 07:10 - ZAX (Length: 2139)
• EOG Resources Remains Neutral Nov 7th, 2009, 07:10 - ZAX (Length: 3176)
• Putting limits on speculative investing appears to be dimming Nov 7th, 2009, 07:05 - KRT (Length: 5192)
• Yemeni president inaugurates first shipment of liquefied natural gas Nov 7th, 2009, 06:58 - BBC (Length: 1345)

[ More Oil News ]

Analysis

Mon 11/2/09

Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Price is above the moving average so the trend is up.

Additional Analysis: Market trend is UP.

Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Short Term: Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bearish, we will not classify it as extremely bearish until the following occurs: price goes below the fast moving average.

Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Long Term: Recently the market has been extremely bullish, however currently the market has lost a some of its bullishness due to the following: the fast moving average slope is down from the previous bar, price is below the fast moving average. Its possible that we may see a market pullback here. if so, the pullback might turn out to be a good buying opportunity.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold condition. An oversold reading occurs when the close is nearer to the bottom band than the top band.

Additional Analysis: The market is in oversold territory. And, the market just signaled a 9 bar bullish key reversal adding to the chance for a rise here.

Volatility Indicator: Volatility is trending up based on a 9 bar moving average.

Momentum Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (-1.22) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Momentum is indicating an oversold market and appears to be slowing, suggesting some strength. A modest upturn is possible here. A bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low here confirms this outlook.

Rate of change Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (-1.57) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Rate of Change is indicating an oversold market and appears to be slowing, suggesting some strength. A modest upturn is possible here. A bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low here confirms this outlook.

Comm Channel Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: CCI (25.04) is in neutral territory. A signal is generated only when the CCI crosses above or below the neutral center region.

Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (25.04) is currently long. The current long position position will be reversed when the CCI crosses below zero. Further, the market just signaled a bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low, suggesting the possibility of a short term rally here.

ADX Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is falling.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is up. However, a falling ADX indicates that the current trend is weakening and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppy market ahead.

DMI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: DMI+ is greater than DMI-, indicating an upward trending market. A signal is generated when DMI+ crosses DMI-.

Additional Analysis: DMI is in bullish territory. Further, a bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low here suggests some upside action.

RSI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 55.29). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat overbought (RSI is at 55.29). However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence before getting too bearish here.

MACD Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bearish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. MACD is in bearish territory. However, the market just signaled a bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low.

Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average. While this is normal following delivery of nearer term contracts, be cautious. Decreasing open interest indicates lower liquidity.

Volume Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.

Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is DOWN. A bullish key reversal off a 5 bar new low here suggests an upmove, and decreasing volume supports the likelihood of an upturn in the market.

Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is bearish because the SlowK line is below the SlowD line.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. The short term trend looks a little toppy. A possible short term down move may occur.

Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is bearish because the SlowK line is below the SlowD line.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. The short term trend looks a little toppy. A possible short term down move may occur.

Swing Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The swing index has crossed zero, identifying this bar as a short term pivot point.

Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.