Analysis
Tue 6/18/13
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an overbought market. An overbought reading occurs when the close is nearer to the top band than the bottom band.
Additional Analysis: The market appears overbought, but may continue to become more overbought before reversing. Given that we closed at a 45 bar new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is greatly increased. Look for some price weakness before taking any bearish positions based on this indicator.
Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:
Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average
Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.
Additional Analysis - Short Term: The market is EXTREMELY BULLISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to higher prices: the fast average is above the slow average; the fast average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; and price is above the fast average and the slow average.
Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.
Additional Analysis - Long Term: The market is EXTREMELY BULLISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to higher prices: the fast average is above the slow average; the fast average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; and price is above the fast average and the slow average.
Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: Price is above the moving average so the trend is up.
Additional Analysis: Market trend is UP.
RSI Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 64.96). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.
Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat overbought (RSI is at 64.96), but given the 45 bar new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.
Stochastic - Fast Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is in overbought territory (SlowK is at 100.00); this indicates a possible market drop is coming.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. The short term trend is UP. Even though the stochastic is signaling that the market is overbought, don't be fooled looking for a top here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking tops in a Bear Market (in which we are not). Exit long position only if some other indicator tells you to.
Stochastic - Slow Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is in overbought territory (SlowK is at 98.67); this indicates a possible market drop is coming.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. The short term trend is UP. Even though the stochastic is signaling that the market is overbought, don't be fooled looking for a top here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking tops in a Bear Market (in which we are not). Exit long position only if some other indicator tells you to.
Swing Index Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The swing index has crossed zero, identifying this bar as a short term pivot point.
Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.
Volatility Indicator: Volatility is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average.
Volume Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The current new high is accompanied by increasing volume, suggesting a continuation to further new highs.
Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is UP.The current new high is accompanied by increasing volume, suggesting a continuation to further new highs. However, be careful to avoid buying in an overbought market. RSI or MACD may be helpful here.
ADX Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is rising.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is up. Further, a rising ADX indicates that the current trend is healthy and should remain intact. Look for the current uptrend to continue.
Comm Channel Index Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: CCI (157.08) recently crossed above the buy line into bullish territory, and is currently long. This long position should be liquidated when the CCI crosses back into the neutral center region.
Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (157.08) is currently long. The current long position position will be reversed when the CCI crosses below zero. Adding bullish pressure the market just reached a 45 bar new high.
DMI Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: DMI+ is greater than DMI-, indicating an upward trending market. A signal is generated when DMI+ crosses DMI-.
Additional Analysis: DMI is in bullish territory. And, the market put in a 45 bar new high here, adding bullish pressure.
MACD Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bullish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. MACD is in bullish territory. And, the market just put in a 45 bar new high here. Look for more new highs.
Momentum Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (5.13) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is in bullish territory.upside move is likely. And, the market put in a 45 bar new high here. More highs are possible.
Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average. While this is normal following delivery of nearer term contracts, be cautious. Decreasing open interest indicates lower liquidity.
Rate of change Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (5.50) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Rate of Change is in bullish territory. And, the market put in a 45 bar new high here. More highs are possible.
Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice. | 
