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Analysis

Fri 11/20/09

Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Price is below the moving average so the trend is down.

Additional Analysis: Market trend is DOWN.

Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Short Term: The market is EXTREMELY BULLISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to higher prices: the fast average is above the slow average; the fast average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; and price is above the fast average and the slow average.

Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Long Term: Recently the market has been extremely bearish, however currently the market has lost a some of its bearishness due to the following: the fast moving average slope is up from previous bar, price is above the fast moving average. Its possible that we may see a market rally here. if so, the rally might turn out to be a good short selling opportunity.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an overbought market. An overbought reading occurs when the close is nearer to the top band than the bottom band.

Additional Analysis: Volatility appears to be declining, as evidenced by a decreasing distance between the upper and lower bands over the last few bars. The market appears overbought, but may continue to become more overbought before reversing. Look for some price weakness before taking any bearish positions based on this indicator.

Volatility Indicator: The volatility trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, has just switched to down.

Momentum Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (-16.69) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is in bearish territory.

Rate of change Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (-13.81) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Rate of Change is in bearish territory.

Comm Channel Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: CCI (-62.71) is in neutral territory. A signal is generated only when the CCI crosses above or below the neutral center region.

Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (-62.71) is currently short. The current short position will be reversed when the CCI crosses above zero.

RSI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 36.86). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat oversold (RSI is at 36.86). However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence here before getting too bullish here.

MACD Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bearish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the MacdMA may indicate a short term rally within the next few bars.

Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average. While this is normal following delivery of nearer term contracts, be cautious. Decreasing open interest indicates lower liquidity.

Volume Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.

Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is UP. Volume is trending higher, allowing for a pick up in volatility.

Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is in oversold territory (SlowK is at 13.73; this indicates a possible market rise is coming. The stochastic is bullish because the SlowK line is above SlowD line.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. The short term trend is DOWN. Don't be fooled looking for a bottom here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking bottoms in a Bull Market (in which we are not). Exit short positions only if some other indicator tells you to.

Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed above the SlowD line; this indicates a buy signal. The stochastic is in oversold territory (SlowK is at 10.90); this indicates a possible market rise is coming.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. The short term trend is DOWN. Don't be fooled looking for a bottom here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking bottoms in a Bull Market (in which we are not). Exit short positions only if some other indicator tells you to.

Swing Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The swing index is most often used to identify bars where the market is likely to change direction. A signal is generated when the swing index crosses zero. No signal has been generated here.

Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.