Analysis

Thu 8/21/08

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an overbought market. An overbought reading occurs when the close is nearer to the top band than the bottom band.

Additional Analysis: The market appears overbought, but may continue to become more overbought before reversing. Look for some price weakness before taking any bearish positions based on this indicator.

Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Short Term: Recently the market has been extremely bearish, however currently the market has lost a some of its bearishness due to the following: the fast moving average slope is up from previous bar, the slow moving average slope is up from previous bar, price is above the fast moving average, price is above the slow moving average. Its possible that we may see a market rally here. if so, the rally might turn out to be a good short selling opportunity.

Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Long Term: Recently the market has been extremely bearish, however currently the market has lost a some of its bearishness due to the following: the fast moving average slope is up from previous bar, price is above the fast moving average, price is above the slow moving average. Its possible that we may see a market rally here. if so, the rally might turn out to be a good short selling opportunity.

Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Price is above the moving average so the trend is up.

Additional Analysis: CAUTION: The market trend has changed direction. Now the trend is UP!

RSI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 49.32). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat oversold (RSI is at 49.32). However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence here before getting too bullish here.

Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is in overbought territory (SlowK is at 85.86); this indicates a possible market drop is coming.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. The short term trend is up. SlowK is showing the market is overbought. Look for a top soon. The short term trend looks a little bottomy. A possible short term up move may occur.

Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is bullish because the SlowK line is above SlowD line.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. The short term trend looks a little bottomy. A possible short term up move may occur.

Swing Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The swing index is most often used to identify bars where the market is likely to change direction. A signal is generated when the swing index crosses zero. No signal has been generated here.

Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

Volatility Indicator: Volatility is trending up based on a 9 bar moving average.

Volume Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.

Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is UP. Volume is trending higher, allowing for a pick up in volatility.

ADX Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is falling.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is down. A falling ADX indicates that the current trend is weakening and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppy market ahead.

Comm Channel Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: CCI (6.80) is in neutral territory. A signal is generated only when the CCI crosses above or below the neutral center region.

Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (6.80) has crossed above zero, issuing a signal to close short positions and initiate long positions.

DMI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: DMI+ is less than DMI-, indicating a downward trending market. A signal is generated when DMI+ crosses DMI-.

Additional Analysis: DMI is in bearish territory.

MACD Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: MACD has issued a bullish signal. A bullish signal is generated when the FastMA crosses above the SlowMA, as it has here.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. MACD has issued a bullish signal, suggesting that the short term upward trend may continue, and may indicate a pending reversal in the long term trend.

Momentum Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (-0.01) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is indicating an oversold market. However the market may continue to become more oversold. Look for evidenced strength before interpreting any bullishness here.

Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is trending up based on a 9 bar moving average. This is normal as delivery approaches and indicates increased liquidity.

Rate of change Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (-0.01) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Rate of Change is indicating an oversold market. However the market may continue to become more oversold. Look for evidenced strength before interpreting any bullishness here.

Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.