January
Technical Overview
CBOT Corn
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May
Corn Futures
19-Year Seasonal
Average
Years 1982 to 2000 settlement values used.
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General
Comments: The
“February Break” tends to start in mid-January – 19 Year Batting Average
for May Contract is Up 10 & Down 9 – Especially strong
January’s follow weak Decembers – Weak January’s tend to see lower lows in
February –
If a strong January then expect the low to hold – Expect monthly high mid
month –
3rd strongest month historically
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- 19 Year Monthly
Performance Summary -
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|
# Years Up
|
10
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# Higher Highs
|
11
|
|
# Years Dn
|
9
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# Lower Lows
|
7
|
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Total Change
|
54
¾
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# Expanded Range
|
10
|
|
Avg Change
|
3
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# Narrow Range
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9
|
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Avg Gain
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10
¼
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|
|
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Avg Loss
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-
5 ¼
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5 yr high
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378
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Avg Range
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16
¾
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5 yr low
|
207
¾
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CBOT Soybeans
|
May
Soybean Futures
19-Year Seasonal
Average
Years 1982 to 2000 settlement values used.
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General
Comments: January
tends to move opposite of December – volatility tends to contract during
the month –
13 out of the last 19 years have seen narrower monthly ranges than
December –
5th weakest month on record with a total loss of –81
cents –
down 12 & up 7 “batting average” – January strength tends to be reversed in
February -
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- 19 Year Monthly
Performance Summary -
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|
# Years Up
|
7
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# Higher Highs
|
6
|
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# Years Dn
|
12
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# Lower Lows
|
11
|
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Total Change
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-81
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# Expanded Range
|
6
|
|
Avg Change
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-4
¼
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# Narrow Range
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13
|
|
Avg Gain
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29
¼
|
|
|
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Avg Loss
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-23
¾
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5 yr high
|
755
|
|
Avg Range
|
42
½
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5 yr low
|
460
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CBOT Wheat
|
May
CBOT Wheat Futures
19-Year Seasonal
Average
Years 1982 to 2000 settlement values used.
|
General
Comments: Strong
January’s often see weak February’s – Weak January’s often see viscous
“February Breaks” – Volatility tends to pick up in January, with an average
range of 29 cents – Expect January lows to be violated in February,
especially following a weak January – January often moves in the opposite
direction as December did -
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|
- 19 Year Monthly
Performance Summary -
|
|
# Years Up
|
11
|
# Higher Highs
|
10
|
|
# Years Dn
|
8
|
# Lower Lows
|
13
|
|
Total Change
|
13
¾
|
# Expanded Range
|
14
|
|
Avg Change
|
¾
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# Narrow Range
|
5
|
|
Avg Gain
|
13
¼
|
|
|
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Avg Loss
|
-16
¼
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5 yr high
|
492
|
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Avg Range
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29
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5 yr low
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253
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see
guide to figures and commentary for field explanations
Each of these statistics, plus general
commentary are provided each calendar month for specific contracts to help
participants make more informed trading decisions.
These figures are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations
but merely representations of historic performance. The General Comments are statements of opinion and are
subjective in nature
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