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Fabled September Storms

Sep 15, 2021 (MENAFN via COMTEX) --

(MENAFN - ValueWalk)

S & P 500 faded the opening upswing, breaking below Monday's lows. High yield corporate bonds didn't surprise by at least closing unchanged, and neither did the quality debt instrument facilitate an upswing within tech or interest rate sensitive sectors such as utilities. In spite of the solid potential for an intraday rally attempt that could take stocks closer to 4500 again, none materialized.

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Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Mohnish Pabrai On The Scale Economy And Investing Alongside Founders

In May, Mohnish Pabrai took part in a Q & A session with the Kolkata Value Hunters Club. In the session, a video of which was later published on YouTube, the value investor took questions about his strategy and general mentality towards investing. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more A Change Of Strategy One of Read More

The bears are taking a breather as evidenced by the VIX rejecting the upside move - but the volatility metric doesn't appear yet ready to roll over to the downside either. While the (mistaken) notion of cooling down CPI could have pushed stocks a little higher, markets appear more focused on the decelerating real economy, on the almost stagflationary atmosphere that's going to have stocks in its grip for the remainder of 2021:

(...) CPI coming in neither too hot, nor too cold, would be in line with my recent expectations of inflation becoming entrenched and elevated. Still, the figures support the transitory notion to a degree - the markets are obviously afraid of high inflation forcing Fed's mistake, and any reading that won't light the immediate inflation fires, would be considered good for the risk-on assets. More so probably for real ones as opposed to stocks. Finally, more time for the Fed to act implies better possibilities for precious metals bulls.

Let's move right into the charts (all courtesy of ).

Table of Contents show
  • 1.S & P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
  • 2.Credit Markets
  • 3.Gold, Silver and Miners
  • 4.Crude Oil
  • 5.Copper
  • 6.Bitcoin and Ethereum
  • 7.Summary
S & P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

The bears retook initiative, making quite a progress when sectoral view is engaged. It doesn't mean though the sentiment can't flip bullish at short notice, except that there is none at the moment.

Credit Markets

Credit markets turned risk-off, and unless HYG kicks in again, the stock market bulls can't think about crossing back above 4,500.

Gold, Silver and Miners

Gold embraced the retreating yields and wavering dollar, followed by miners and silver. The heavier than usual volume shows accumulation, but the bulls better arm themselves with patience.

Crude Oil

Crude oil hesitated yesterday, and oil stocks likely declined merely in sympathy with the stock market. Black gold's daily resilience can very well mean a broader commodity upswing is at hand.

Copper

Copper had been trading a bit too much at odds with the CRB, and remains prone to an upside reversal. I'm not looking for the 50-day moving average to give in.

Bitcoin and Ethereum

Bitcoin golden cross is here, and cryptos are likely to continue their measured rise. Crucially, Ethereum outperformance is still with us.

Summary

Risk taking - or should it be properly called รข??hedging" - lit the fuse behind real assets as paper ones lag. While the dollar hasn't experienced much selling pressure yet in spite of retreating Treasury yields, its any modest decline is likely to be more than mirrored by the rising commodities, fitting well what one would look for in a slowing down economy with still rampant money printing.

Thank you for having read today's free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica's Insider Club , which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Thank you,

Monica Kingsley

Stock Trading Signals

Gold Trading Signals

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Bitcoin Trading Signals

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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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