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USDA - AMS: Fluid Milk and Cream Review - Central (2019-03-07)

USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture - March 7, 2019


     MD_DA230

     Fluid Milk and Cream - Central U.S.

     Report 10 - Released on March 07, 2019

     In the upper Midwest, dairy farmers who are already facing myriad hurdles are getting
     hammered by record snowfalls. Estimates from contacts are that on multiple days last week, a
     majority of milk haulers were unable to reach farms to pick up milk or destinations after
     the pickup. Hence, a number of milk loads from Minnesota down to upper Wisconsin were
     discarded. There were similar reports in Iowa. Additionally, due to the accumulation of
     snow, a number of dairy barns have literally collapsed in the upper Midwest. In the lower
     part of the region, milk production is seasonally increasing, and a lot of intake facilities
     are full-up. Bottling order reports range across the spectrum. Regardless, in the lower
     Central region, milk is undoubtedly plentiful. Cheese producers continue to hesitate at
     taking on spot milk loads, even at discounted prices. The reported spot range was $.50 to
     $2 under Class. Cream is available. On a positive note, cream cheese producers are
     increasing their intakes, and cream handlers note this growth should continue into the
     spring holidays. Still, butter churners remain busy and continue to actively produce in
     order to store butter for spring and fall. As bottled milk sales continue to decline and
     face a number of challenges from plant-based products to declining per capita usage, some
     contacts are suggesting cheese, yogurt and milk powders are where they are turning their
     sites. As current hay rations dwindle in the south Central region, crop condition reports
     are positive for wheat crops as forecasts are showing some seasonal warmth after multiple
     prolonged freezes in recent weeks.

     The DMN monthly average of the range price series for Upper Midwest Class II cream during
     February 2019 was $2.6582, compared to $2.6433 in January.

     National Retail Report Dairy  Fluid Milk Summary
     Advertised Prices at Major Retail Supermarket Outlets ending during the
     period of 3/1/19 to 3/7/2019



     Half Gallon, All Fat Tests                Weighted Average Price
     National                           This Period     Last Week    Last Year
     Organic                              $4.00            $4.07       $4.06
     Conventional                         $2.31            $1.89       $1.79

     Regional (Conventional)            Wtd. Ave.       Low           High
     Alaska                               $3.29         $3.29          $3.29
     Hawaii                                n.a.          n.a.           n.a.
     Midwest                              $2.50         $2.50          $2.50
     Northeast                            $1.99         $1.99          $1.99
     Northwest                            $0.99         $0.99          $0.99
     South Central                        $2.69         $1.89          $3.99
     Southeast                             n.a.          n.a.           n.a.
     Southwest                            $2.99         $2.99          $2.99

     Regional (Organic)                 Wtd. Ave.       Low           High
     Alaska                                n.a.          n.a.           n.a.
     Hawaii                                n.a.          n.a.           n.a.
     Midwest                               n.a.          n.a.           n.a.
     Northeast                             $4.45         $3.29          $5.49
     Northwest                             $3.80         $2.99          $3.99
     South Central                         $4.25         $3.99          $4.49
     Southeast                             $3.85         $3.00          $4.78
     Southwest                             $3.52         $2.49          $4.49

     Gallon, All Fat Tests                     Weighted Average Price
     National                           This Period     Last Week     Last Year
     Organic                             $5.51            $5.31          $6.37
     Conventional                        $2.58            $2.24          $2.87

     Regional (Conventional)            Wtd. Ave.       Low           High
     Alaska                                n.a.          n.a.           n.a.
     Hawaii                                n.a.          n.a.           n.a.
     Midwest                               n.a.          n.a.           n.a.
     Northeast                            $2.45         $1.99          $2.99
     Northwest                             n.a.          n.a.           n.a.
     South Central                        $3.99         $3.99          $3.99
     Southeast                             n.a.          n.a.           n.a.
     Southwest                            $2.39         $1.99          $2.49

     Regional (Organic)                 Wtd. Ave.       Low           High
     Alaska                               n.a.          n.a.           n.a.
     Hawaii                               n.a.          n.a.           n.a.
     Midwest                              n.a.          n.a.           n.a.
     Northeast                            n.a.          n.a.           n.a.
     Northwest                            n.a.          n.a.           n.a.
     South Central                        n.a.          n.a.           n.a.
     Southeast                            $5.99         $5.99          $5.99
     Southwest                            $5.40         $4.49          $5.99

     Midwestern U.S., F.O.B. Cream
     Multiples Range - All Classes:               1.1200 - 1.2000
     Price Range - Class II; $/LB Butterfat:      2.6094 - 2.7228
     Multiples Range - Class II:                  1.1500 - 1.2000


     Information for the period March 4 - 8, 2019, issued weekly

     Secondary Sourced Information:

     Dairy Products Report - Ice Cream, Regular, Hard
     Released February 28, 2019, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),
     Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

     Ice Cream, Regular (Hard) Production  States and United States: 2017 and 2018
                                 Monthly Production (1000 pounds)     Percent Change from
     Total Cream, Regular (Hard)  December    November  December      December   November
     Region                           2017        2018      2018          2017       2018
     United States                  46,520      49,759    43,687          -6.1      -12.2

     Atlantic                       10,678      13,136    11,257           5.4      -14.3
       Pennsylvania                  3,857       3,830     3,831          -0.7         0

     Central                        28,474      26,767    25,296         -11.2       -5.5
       Missouri                      1,444       2,279     1,852          28.3      -18.7
       Ohio                          1,698       1,943     1,960          15.4        0.9

     West                            7,368       9,856     7,134          -3.2      -27.6
       California                    3,553       4,468     2,959         -16.7      -33.8
       Oregon                          914         984     1,141          24.8       16.0
       Utah                            899       2,316       905           0.7      -60.9

     Ice Cream, Regular (Hard)  Cumulative Production January - December
                       Cumulative Production   Percent Change
                           (1000 pounds)            from
     Report Month          2017        2018         2017
     December           762,662     730,682         -4.2
     Published by:
     Dairy Market News - Madison, WI
     ISRAEL WEBER, 608-422-8601
     Email: israel.weber@ams.usda.gov

     Additional Dairy Market News Information:
     Dairy Market News (DMN) by Phone: (608)422-8602
     DMN Website: http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/dairy
     DMN Database Portal: http://www.marketnews.usda.gov/mnp/da-home

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