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USDA - NASS: Crop Production (2020-03-10)

USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture - March 10, 2020


Crop Production 

ISSN: 1936-3737

Released March 10, 2020, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service 
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of 
Agriculture (USDA).

Orange Production Down 1 Percent from February Forecast

The United States all orange forecast for the 2019-2020 season is 
5.24 million tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast and 
down 2 percent from the 2018-2019 final utilization. The Florida all orange 
forecast, at 71.0 million boxes (3.20 million tons), is down 1 percent from 
the previous forecast and down 1 percent from last season's final 
utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast 
at 30.0 million boxes (1.35 million tons), down 3 percent from the previous 
forecast and down 1 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida 
Valencia orange forecast, at 41.0 million boxes (1.85 million tons), is 
unchanged from the previous forecast but 1 percent below last season's final 
utilization.

The California Valencia orange forecast is 8.50 million boxes (340,000 tons), 
down 6 percent from both last month and the previous season. This results in 
a California all orange forecast of 48.5 million boxes (1.94 million tons), 
down 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 3 percent from last 
season's final utilization. The forecast for Texas is carried forward from 
the previous forecast.

This report was approved on March 10, 2020.

Secretary of Agriculture
Designate
Joseph Cooper

Agricultural Statistics Board
Chairperson
Joseph L. Parsons

Contents

Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2018 and 2019................  4

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2018-2019 and Forecasted 
March 1, 2020............................................................................................  5

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020..  6

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020....  8

Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020.............................. 10

Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020................................ 11

Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12

Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12

February Weather Summary................................................................................. 13

February Agricultural Summary............................................................................ 13

Crop Comments............................................................................................ 13

Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15

Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16
 
Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2018 and 2019
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :    Area harvested     :   Yield per acre 1/   :     Production 1/     
        State       :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :   2018    :   2019    :   2018    :   2019    :   2018    :   2019    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :   -- 1,000 acres --       ----- tons -----       --- 1,000 tons ---   
                    :                                                                       
For sugar           :                                                                       
Florida ............:   397.0       397.0       41.7        42.8       16,555      16,992   
Louisiana ..........:   425.0       442.0       35.3        27.7       15,003      12,243   
Texas ..............:    37.6        31.3       36.6        33.6        1,376       1,052   
                    :                                                                       
United States ......:   859.6       870.3       38.3        34.8       32,934      30,287   
                    :                                                                       
For seed            :                                                                       
Florida ............:    15.3        13.7       45.8        47.6          701         652   
Louisiana ..........:    23.5        27.0       36.5        34.0          858         918   
Texas ..............:     1.3         2.2       37.9        36.5           49          80   
                    :                                                                       
United States ......:    40.1        42.9       40.1        38.5        1,608       1,650   
                    :                                                                       
For sugar and seed  :                                                                       
Florida ............:   412.3       410.7       41.9        43.0       17,256      17,644   
Louisiana ..........:   448.5       469.0       35.4        28.1       15,861      13,161   
Texas ..............:    38.9        33.5       36.6        33.8        1,425       1,132   
                    :                                                                       
United States ......:   899.7       913.2       38.4        35.0       34,542      31,937   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.                                                                         
(X)  Not applicable.                                                                        
1/   Net tons.                                                                              

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2018-2019 and
Forecasted March 1, 2020
[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest
the following year]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :   Utilized production boxes 1/    :Utilized production ton equivalent 
        Crop and State        :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :    2018-2019    :    2019-2020    :    2018-2019    :    2019-2020    
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :     ------ 1,000 boxes ------            ------ 1,000 tons -----      
Oranges                       :                                                                       
California, all ..............:      49,800            48,500            1,992             1,940      
 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 3/ .:      40,800            40,000            1,632             1,600      
 Valencia ....................:       9,000             8,500              360               340      
                              :                                                                       
Florida, all .................:      71,750            71,000            3,229             3,195      
 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....:      30,400            30,000            1,368             1,350      
 Valencia ....................:      41,350            41,000            1,861             1,845      
                              :                                                                       
Texas, all 2/ ................:       2,500             2,560              106               109      
 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....:       2,210             1,950               94                83      
 Valencia ....................:         290               610               12                26      
                              :                                                                       
United States, all ...........:     124,050           122,060            5,327             5,244      
 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....:      73,410            71,950            3,094             3,033      
 Valencia ....................:      50,640            50,110            2,233             2,211      
                              :                                                                       
Grapefruit                    :                                                                       
California 2/ ................:       3,200             4,100              128               164      
Florida, all .................:       4,510             5,400              192               229      
 Red .........................:       3,740             4,500              159               191      
 White .......................:         770               900               33                38      
Texas 2/ .....................:       6,100             6,200              244               248      
                              :                                                                       
United States ................:      13,810            15,700              564               641      
                              :                                                                       
Tangerines and mandarins 4/   :                                                                       
California 2/ ................:      26,000            22,000            1,040               880      
Florida ......................:         990             1,050               47                50      
                              :                                                                       
United States ................:      26,990            23,050            1,087               930      
                              :                                                                       
Lemons 2/                     :                                                                       
Arizona ......................:       1,350             1,400               54                56      
California ...................:      22,800            19,000              912               760      
                              :                                                                       
United States ................:      24,150            20,400              966               816      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80,   
   Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80.            
2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.                                 
3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in
   Florida and Texas.                                                                                 
4/ Includes tangelos and tangors.                                                                     

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States:
2019 and 2020
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous
reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :       Area planted        :      Area harvested       
                  Crop                  :-------------------------------------------------------
                                        :    2019     :    2020     :    2019     :    2020     
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :                      1,000 acres                      
                                        :                                                       
Grains and hay                          :                                                       
Barley .................................:     2,721                       2,182                 
Corn for grain 1/ ......................:    89,700                      81,482                 
Corn for silage ........................:      (NA)                       6,587                 
Hay, all ...............................:      (NA)                      52,425                 
  Alfalfa ..............................:      (NA)                      16,743                 
  All other ............................:      (NA)                      35,682                 
Oats ...................................:     2,810                         826                 
Proso millet ...........................:       506                         465                 
Rice ...................................:     2,540                       2,472                 
Rye ....................................:     1,865                         310                 
Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................:     5,265                       4,675                 
Sorghum for silage .....................:      (NA)                         339                 
Wheat, all .............................:    45,158                      37,162                 
  Winter ...............................:    31,159       30,804         24,327                 
  Durum ................................:     1,339                       1,175                 
  Other spring .........................:    12,660                      11,660                 
                                        :                                                       
Oilseeds                                :                                                       
Canola .................................:   2,040.0                     1,910.0                 
Cottonseed .............................:       (X)                         (X)                 
Flaxseed ...............................:       374                         319                 
Mustard seed ...........................:      98.0                        90.0                 
Peanuts ................................:   1,427.7                     1,391.7                 
Rapeseed ...............................:      11.3                        10.4                 
Safflower ..............................:     165.8                       152.7                 
Soybeans for beans .....................:    76,100                      75,021                 
Sunflower ..............................:   1,350.6                     1,244.5                 
                                        :                                                       
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops        :                                                       
Cotton, all ............................:  13,737.8                    11,804.5                 
  Upland ...............................:  13,508.0                    11,580.0                 
  American Pima ........................:     229.8                       224.5                 
Sugarbeets .............................:   1,132.0                       979.3                 
Sugarcane ..............................:      (NA)                       913.2                 
Tobacco ................................:      (NA)                       227.1                 
                                        :                                                       
Dry beans, peas, and lentils            :                                                       
Chickpeas ..............................:     451.4                       404.0                 
Dry edible beans .......................:   1,287.4                     1,176.5                 
Dry edible peas ........................:   1,103.0                     1,052.0                 
Lentils ................................:     486.0                       431.0                 
                                        :                                                       
Potatoes and miscellaneous              :                                                       
Hops ...................................:      (NA)                        56.5                 
Maple syrup ............................:      (NA)                        (NA)                 
Mushrooms ..............................:      (NA)                        (NA)                 
Peppermint oil .........................:      (NA)                        52.4                 
Potatoes ...............................:     968.3                       942.2                 
Spearmint oil ..........................:      (NA)                        18.5                 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See footnote(s) at end of table.                                                     --continued

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States:
2019 and 2020 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous
reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :      Yield per acre       :        Production         
                  Crop                  :-------------------------------------------------------
                                        :    2019     :    2020     :    2019     :    2020     
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :                             ------ 1,000 ------       
                                        :                                                       
Grains and hay                          :                                                       
Barley ..........................bushels:     77.7                       169,566                
Corn for grain ..................bushels:    168.0                    13,691,561                
Corn for silage ....................tons:     20.2                       132,807                
Hay, all ...........................tons:     2.46                       128,864                
  Alfalfa ..........................tons:     3.28                        54,875                
  All other ........................tons:     2.07                        73,989                
Oats ............................bushels:     64.3                        53,148                
Proso millet ....................bushels:     35.7                        16,608                
Rice 2/ .............................cwt:    7,471                       184,675                
Rye .............................bushels:     34.3                        10,622                
Sorghum for grain ...............bushels:     73.0                       341,460                
Sorghum for silage .................tons:     11.9                         4,019                
Wheat, all ......................bushels:     51.7                     1,920,139                
  Winter ........................bushels:     53.6                     1,304,003                
  Durum .........................bushels:     45.7                        53,756                
  Other spring ..................bushels:     48.2                       562,380                
                                        :                                                       
Oilseeds                                :                                                       
Canola ...........................pounds:    1,781                     3,402,000                
Cottonseed .........................tons:      (X)                       6,232.0                
Flaxseed ........................bushels:     20.0                         6,395                
Mustard seed .....................pounds:      706                        63,580                
Peanuts ..........................pounds:    3,949                     5,496,087                
Rapeseed .........................pounds:    2,160                        22,464                
Safflower ........................pounds:    1,272                       194,295                
Soybeans for beans ..............bushels:     47.4                     3,558,281                
Sunflower ........................pounds:    1,562                     1,943,435                
                                        :                                                       
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops        :                                                       
Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales:      817                      20,102.0                
  Upland 2/ .......................bales:      803                      19,380.0                
  American Pima 2/ ................bales:    1,544                         722.0                
Sugarbeets .........................tons:     29.2                        28,600                
Sugarcane ..........................tons:     35.0                        31,937                
Tobacco ..........................pounds:    2,060                       467,956                
                                        :                                                       
Dry beans, peas, and lentils            :                                                       
Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt:    1,544                         6,237                
Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt:    1,769                        20,811                
Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt:    2,124                        22,346                
Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt:    1,250                         5,388                
                                        :                                                       
Potatoes and miscellaneous              :                                                       
Hops .............................pounds:    1,981                     112,041.2                
Maple syrup .....................gallons:     (NA)                         4,240                
Mushrooms ........................pounds:     (NA)                       846,491                
Peppermint oil ...................pounds:      104                         5,452                
Potatoes ............................cwt:      449                       422,890                
Spearmint oil ....................pounds:      130                         2,413                
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.                                                                             
(X)  Not applicable.                                                                            
1/   Area planted for all purposes.                                                             
2/   Yield in pounds.                                                                           

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States:
2019 and 2020
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from
previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year. Blank data
cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                :       Area planted        :      Area harvested       
              Crop              :-------------------------------------------------------
                                :    2019     :    2020     :    2019     :    2020     
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                :                       hectares                        
                                :                                                       
Grains and hay                  :                                                       
Barley .........................:  1,101,160                     883,030                
Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 36,300,690                  32,974,950                
Corn for silage ................:       (NA)                   2,665,690                
Hay, all 2/ ....................:       (NA)                  21,215,870                
  Alfalfa ......................:       (NA)                   6,775,720                
  All other ....................:       (NA)                  14,440,150                
Oats ...........................:  1,137,180                     334,270                
Proso millet ...................:    204,770                     188,180                
Rice ...........................:  1,027,910                   1,000,390                
Rye ............................:    754,750                     125,450                
Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........:  2,130,690                   1,891,930                
Sorghum for silage .............:       (NA)                     137,190                
Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 18,274,990                  15,039,090                
  Winter .......................: 12,609,740    12,466,070     9,844,890                
  Durum ........................:    541,880                     475,510                
  Other spring .................:  5,123,380                   4,718,690                
                                :                                                       
Oilseeds                        :                                                       
Canola .........................:    825,570                     772,960                
Cottonseed .....................:        (X)                         (X)                
Flaxseed .......................:    151,350                     129,100                
Mustard seed ...................:     39,660                      36,420                
Peanuts ........................:    577,780                     563,210                
Rapeseed .......................:      4,570                       4,210                
Safflower ......................:     67,100                      61,800                
Soybeans for beans .............: 30,796,910                  30,360,250                
Sunflower ......................:    546,570                     503,640                
                                :                                                       
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops:                                                       
Cotton, all 2/ .................:  5,559,550                   4,777,160                
  Upland .......................:  5,466,550                   4,686,310                
  American Pima ................:     93,000                      90,850                
Sugarbeets .....................:    458,110                     396,310                
Sugarcane ......................:       (NA)                     369,560                
Tobacco ........................:       (NA)                      91,910                
                                :                                                       
Dry beans, peas, and lentils    :                                                       
Chickpeas ......................:    182,680                     163,490                
Dry edible beans ...............:    521,000                     476,120                
Dry edible peas ................:    446,370                     425,730                
Lentils ........................:    196,680                     174,420                
                                :                                                       
Potatoes and miscellaneous      :                                                       
Hops ...........................:       (NA)                      22,880                
Maple syrup ....................:       (NA)                        (NA)                
Mushrooms ......................:       (NA)                        (NA)                
Peppermint oil .................:       (NA)                      21,210                
Potatoes .......................:    391,860                     381,300                
Spearmint oil ..................:       (NA)                       7,490                
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See footnote(s) at end of table.                                             --continued

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States:
2019 and 2020 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous
reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :     Yield per hectare     :        Production         
                  Crop                  :-------------------------------------------------------
                                        :    2019     :    2020     :    2019     :    2020     
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :                      metric tons                      
                                        :                                                       
Grains and hay                          :                                                       
Barley .................................:     4.18                      3,691,860               
Corn for grain .........................:    10.55                    347,781,670               
Corn for silage ........................:    45.20                    120,480,480               
Hay, all 2/ ............................:     5.51                    116,903,450               
  Alfalfa ..............................:     7.35                     49,781,760               
  All other ............................:     4.65                     67,121,690               
Oats ...................................:     2.31                        771,440               
Proso millet ...........................:     2.00                        376,660               
Rice ...................................:     8.37                      8,376,720               
Rye ....................................:     2.15                        269,810               
Sorghum for grain ......................:     4.58                      8,673,480               
Sorghum for silage .....................:    26.58                      3,645,980               
Wheat, all 2/ ..........................:     3.47                     52,257,620               
  Winter ...............................:     3.60                     35,489,150               
  Durum ................................:     3.08                      1,463,000               
  Other spring .........................:     3.24                     15,305,480               
                                        :                                                       
Oilseeds                                :                                                       
Canola .................................:     2.00                      1,543,120               
Cottonseed .............................:      (X)                      5,653,580               
Flaxseed ...............................:     1.26                        162,440               
Mustard seed ...........................:     0.79                         28,840               
Peanuts ................................:     4.43                      2,492,980               
Rapeseed ...............................:     2.42                         10,190               
Safflower ..............................:     1.43                         88,130               
Soybeans for beans .....................:     3.19                     96,840,540               
Sunflower ..............................:     1.75                        881,530               
                                        :                                                       
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops        :                                                       
Cotton, all 2/ .........................:     0.92                      4,376,690               
  Upland ...............................:     0.90                      4,219,500               
  American Pima ........................:     1.73                        157,200               
Sugarbeets .............................:    65.47                     25,945,480               
Sugarcane ..............................:    78.40                     28,972,760               
Tobacco ................................:     2.31                        212,260               
                                        :                                                       
Dry beans, peas, and lentils            :                                                       
Chickpeas ..............................:     1.73                        282,910               
Dry edible beans .......................:     1.98                        943,970               
Dry edible peas ........................:     2.38                      1,013,600               
Lentils ................................:     1.40                        244,400               
                                        :                                                       
Potatoes and miscellaneous              :                                                       
Hops ...................................:     2.22                         50,820               
Maple syrup ............................:     (NA)                         21,200               
Mushrooms ..............................:     (NA)                        383,960               
Peppermint oil .........................:     0.12                          2,470               
Potatoes ...............................:    50.31                     19,181,970               
Spearmint oil ..........................:     0.15                          1,090               
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.                                                                             
(X)  Not applicable.                                                                            
1/   Area planted for all purposes.                                                             
2/   Total may not add due to rounding.                                                         

Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2019-2020 season. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           :            Production             
                    Crop                   :-----------------------------------
                                           :      2019       :      2020       
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Citrus 1/                                  :                                   
Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons:          564             641      
Lemons ..........................1,000 tons:          966             816      
Oranges .........................1,000 tons:        5,327           5,244      
Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons:        1,087             930      
                                           :                                   
Noncitrus                                  :                                   
Apples, commercial ..........million pounds:     10,630.0                      
Apricots ..............................tons:       64,500                      
Avocados ..............................tons:                                   
Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds:                                   
Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds:                                   
Cherries, Sweet .......................tons:      362,000                      
Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds:        290.2                      
Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds:       26,430                      
Cranberries .........................barrel:    9,040,000                      
                                           :                                   
Dates .................................tons:                                   
Grapes ................................tons:    7,500,000                      
Kiwifruit (California) ................tons:                                   
Nectarines (California) ...............tons:                                   
Olives (California) ...................tons:                                   
Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds:                                   
Peaches ...............................tons:      733,500                      
Pears .................................tons:      805,000                      
Plums (California) ....................tons:                                   
Prunes (California) ...................tons:      110,000                      
Raspberries, all  .............1,000 pounds:                                   
Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt:                                   
                                           :                                   
Nuts and miscellaneous                     :                                   
Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds:    2,200,000                      
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons:       49,000                      
Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds:                                   
Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds:      264,500                      
Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds:                                   
Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons:      630,000                      
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Production years are 2018-2019 and 2019-2020.                               

Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2019-2020 season. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           :            Production             
                    Crop                   :-----------------------------------
                                           :      2019       :      2020       
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           :            metric tons            
                                           :                                   
Citrus 1/                                  :                                   
Grapefruit ................................:      511,650           581,510    
Lemons ....................................:      876,340           740,260    
Oranges ...................................:    4,832,570         4,757,280    
Tangerines and mandarins ..................:      986,110           843,680    
                                           :                                   
Noncitrus                                  :                                   
Apples, commercial ........................:    4,821,690                      
Apricots ..................................:       58,510                      
Avocados ..................................:                                   
Blueberries, Cultivated ...................:                                   
Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................:                                   
Cherries, Sweet ...........................:      328,400                      
Cherries, Tart ............................:      131,630                      
Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................:       11,990                      
Cranberries ...............................:      410,050                      
                                           :                                   
Dates .....................................:                                   
Grapes ....................................:    6,803,890                      
Kiwifruit (California) ....................:                                   
Nectarines (California) ...................:                                   
Olives (California) .......................:                                   
Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................:                                   
Peaches ...................................:      665,420                      
Pears .....................................:      730,280                      
Plums (California) ........................:                                   
Prunes (California) .......................:       99,790                      
Raspberries, all ..........................:                                   
Strawberries ..............................:                                   
                                           :                                   
Nuts and miscellaneous                     :                                   
Almonds, shelled (California) .............:      997,900                      
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............:       44,450                      
Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................:                                   
Pecans, in-shell ..........................:      119,980                      
Pistachios (California) ...................:                                   
Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............:      571,530                      
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Production years are 2018-2019 and 2019-2020.                               

February Weather Summary

Significant precipitation deficits persisted through a second consecutive 
month in much of California and the Great Basin. In fact, parts of California 
received no precipitation during the month, setting February records for 
dryness. In addition, little snow has fallen in the Sierra Nevada over the 
last 2 months, leaving the average water equivalency of the high-elevation 
snowpack less than one-half of the end-of-February average.

Other areas of the West received occasional rain and snow. Northwestern 
snowpack, which had stabilized during a wet January, continued to benefit 
from periods of stormy weather. Pockets of drought persisted, however, along 
the eastern slopes of the Cascades and in south-central Idaho. In contrast, 
an early-February deluge-following a heavy-snow event-triggered significant 
flooding in northeastern Oregon and environs.

Farther east, most areas from the Plains to the Atlantic Seaboard experienced 
another wet month. In some cases, Southern rivers that had flooded in 
mid-to-late January surged to even higher levels during the second half of 
February. Lowland flooding also extended northward into the lower Midwest, 
while parts of the northern Corn Belt continued to brace for spring flooding. 
Conversely, drier-than-normal February weather affected a few areas, 
including southern Texas, the upper Great Lakes region, parts of New England, 
and the northern part of peninsular Florida.

Some areas in the upper Midwest, including the eastern Dakotas, have since 
late November reported a continuous snow cover, beneath which soils remain 
saturated. During February, North Dakota's corn harvest advanced from 49 to 
61 percent complete, while the state's sunflower harvest advanced from 67 to 
79 percent complete. Other states in the northern Corn Belt, including 
Minnesota and Wisconsin, reported some corn still standing in the field.

Elsewhere, relatively benign weather prevailed on the Plains, as generally 
mild weather accompanied frequent precipitation events. However, short-lived 
cold outbreaks delivered sub-zero temperatures as far south as Colorado and 
Nebraska. Similarly, a mid-month cold blast produced Midwestern readings 
below 0F into northern Missouri and central Illinois.

Despite the brief cold waves, above-normal February temperatures dominated 
the country. The warmest weather, relative to normal, covered areas east of 
the Mississippi River, where many locations reported monthly temperatures 
more than 5F above normal. Slightly cooler-than-normal February weather was 
mostly confined to the Pacific Northwest and Desert Southwest.

February Agricultural Summary

February was warmer than normal for most of the eastern half of the Nation. 
Temperatures averaged 5F or more above normal for much of the Mid-Atlantic 
and southern New England States. Most of California, the northern 
Great Plains, and the Pacific Northwest saw above average temperatures. In 
contrast, much of the upper Midwest, Rocky Mountain States, and most of Texas 
saw below average temperatures. Some parts of Colorado, Idaho, and Wyoming 
saw average temperatures 8F or more below normal. 

During the month of February, most of the eastern United States received 
higher than average precipitation with the exception of much of the 
Great Lakes region and along much of the Gulf Coast. Most of the Southeast 
received 6 inches of rain or more above normal. In contrast, much of the West 
and Midwest saw drier than normal conditions, with large parts of California 
receiving little or no rain in February.

Crop Comments

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2019 was estimated 
at 31.9 million tons, down 8 percent from 2018. Producers harvested 
913,200 acres for sugar and seed during the 2019 crop year, up 2 percent from 
2018. Yield for sugar and seed was estimated at 35.0 tons per acre, down 
3.4 tons from 2018.

Grapefruit: The United States 2019-2020 grapefruit crop is forecast at 
641,000 tons, down 3 percent from the previous forecast but up 14 percent 
from last season's final utilization. In Florida, expected production, at 
5.40 million boxes (229,000 tons), is down 8 percent from the previous 
forecast but up 20 percent from last year. California and Texas grapefruit 
production forecasts were carried forward from the previous forecast.

Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is 
forecast at 930,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but 
down 14 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida tangerine 
and mandarin forecast, at 1.05 million boxes (50,000 ton), is unchanged from 
the previous forecast but up 6 percent from last year. The California 
tangerine and mandarin forecast was carried forward from the previous 
forecast.

Statistical Methodology

Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast 
was conducted in Florida. In August and September last year, the number of 
bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree was determined. In August and 
subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are 
conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the 
current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower surveys 
on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also 
conducts objective measurement surveys in September for Navel oranges and in 
March for Valencia oranges.

Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida 
oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with 
historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analysis of the 
current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses 
the Florida survey data and their analyses to prepare the published March 1 
forecast. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for 
setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current 
situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey 
data and the State analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast.

Revision policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new 
forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season 
estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. 
The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the 
marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and 
processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and 
home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 
production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure 
based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 
production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of 
the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the 
latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes 
statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be 
made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the 
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's 
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 
4.0 percent. However, if the three abnormal production seasons (three 
hurricane seasons) are excluded, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 4.3 percent. 
This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production 
forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 
4.0 percent, or 4.3 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 
10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 
6.9 percent, or 7.5 percent excluding abnormal seasons.

Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during 
the past 20 years have averaged 198,000 tons (224,000 tons, excluding 
abnormal seasons), ranging from 8 tons to 733,000 tons (18 tons to 733,000 
tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The March 1 forecast for oranges has been 
below the final estimate 9 times and above 11 times (below 8 times and above 
9 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the 
March 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final 
production.

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural 
Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to 
nass@usda.gov

Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch.................................................... (202) 720-2127

Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section........................................... (202) 720-2127
     David Colwell - Current Agricultural Industrial Reports........................ (202) 720-8800
     Chris Hawthorn - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet.................................. (202) 720-2127
     James Johanson - County Estimates, Hay......................................... (202) 690-8533
     Jeff Lemmons - Oats, Soybeans.................................................. (202) 690-3234
     Irwin Anolik - Crop Weather.................................................... (202) 720-7621
     Chris Hawthorn - Peanuts, Rice................................................. (202) 720-2127
     Jean Porter - Rye, Wheat....................................................... (202) 720-8068
Chris Singh - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum...................................... (202) 720-5944
     Travis Thorson - Barley, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds............................. (202) 720-7369

Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section............. (202) 720-2127
Joshua Bates - Almonds, Apples, Apricots, Asparagus, Carrots, Coffee, Onions,
Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco.................................................. (202) 720-4288
    Fleming Gibson - Cauliflower, Celery, Grapefruit, Lemons, Macadamia,
Mandarins and tangerines, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges................................ (202) 720-5412
    Greg Lemmons - Cranberries, Cucumbers, Pistachios, Potatoes, Pumpkins, 
Raspberries, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes,
Tame Blueberries, Wild Blueberries.................................................. (202) 720-4285
    Dan Norris - Artichokes, Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Green Peas, Lentils,
          Nectarines, Papayas, Peaches, Snap Beans, Spinach, Walnuts, Watermelons .. (202) 720-3250
 Krishna Rizal - Dry Beans, Garlic, Hazelnuts, Honeydews, Kiwifruit, Lettuce,
Maple Syrup, Mint, Pears, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Tomatoes................... (202) 720-2157
    Dawn Smoker - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chickpeas, 
Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Pecans............................ (202) 720-4215

Access to NASS Reports

For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following 
ways:

 	All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web 
site: www.nass.usda.gov

 	Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e-
mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit 
www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right 
corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports 
you would like to receive.

 	Cornell's Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS's and 
other agency's archived reports. The new website, 
https://usda.library.cornell.edu. All email subscriptions containing 
reports will be sent from the new website, 
https://usda.library.cornell.edu. To continue receiving the reports via 
e-mail, you will have to go to the new website, create a new account 
and re-subscribe to the reports. If you need instructions to set up an 
account or subscribe, they are located at: 
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/help. You should whitelist 
notifications@usda-esmis.library.cornell.edu in your email client to 
avoid the emails going into spam/junk folders. 

For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural 
Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: 
nass@usda.gov. 
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against 
its customers, employees, and applicants for employment on the basis of race, 
color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion, 
reprisal, and where applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial 
or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's 
income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic 
information in employment or in any program or activity conducted or funded 
by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs 
and/or employment activities.) 
If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, 
complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form (PDF), found online 
at www.ascr.usda.gov/filing-program-discrimination-complaint-usda-customer, 
or at any USDA office, or call (866) 632-9992 to request the form. You may 
also write a letter containing all of the information requested in the form. 
Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department 
of Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue, 
S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, by fax (202) 690-7442 or email at 
program.intake@usda.gov. 

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