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USDA - NASS: Crop Production (2020-04-09)

USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture - April 9, 2020


Crop Production 

ISSN: 1936-3737

Released April 9, 2020, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service 
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of 
Agriculture (USDA).

Orange Production Down 1 Percent from March Forecast

The United States all orange forecast for the 2019-2020 season is 
5.19 million tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast and 
down 4 percent from the revised 2018-2019 final utilization. The Florida all 
orange forecast, at 70.0 million boxes (3.15 million tons), is down 1 percent 
from the previous forecast and down 3 percent from last season's revised 
final utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are 
forecast at 30.0 million boxes (1.35 million tons), unchanged from the 
previous forecast but down 1 percent from last season's final utilization. 
The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 40.0 million boxes 
(1.80 million tons), is down 2 percent from the previous forecast and 
3 percent below last season's revised final utilization.

The California all orange forecast is 48.5 million boxes (1.94 million tons), 
unchanged from the previous forecast but down 6 percent from last season's 
revised final utilization. The California Navel orange forecast, at 
40.0 million boxes (1.60 million tons), is unchanged from the previous 
forecast but down 5 percent from last season's revised final utilization. The 
California Valencia orange forecast, at 8.50 million boxes (340,000 tons), is 
unchanged from the previous forecast but down 10 percent from last season's 
revised final utilization. The Texas all orange forecast, at 
2.30 million boxes (98,000 tons), is down 10 percent from the previous 
forecast and down 8 percent from last season's final utilization.

This report was approved on April 9, 2020.

Secretary of Agriculture
Designate
Stephen L. Censky

Agricultural Statistics Board
Chairperson
Joseph L. Parsons

Contents

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2018-2019 and Forecasted 
April 1, 2020............................................................................................  5

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020..  6

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020....  8

Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020.............................. 10

Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020................................ 11

Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12

Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12

March Weather Summary.................................................................................... 13

March Agricultural Summary............................................................................... 13

Crop Comments............................................................................................ 14

Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15

Reliability of April 1 Crop Production Forecasts......................................................... 15

Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16
 
This page intentionally left blank.

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2018-2019 and
Forecasted April 1, 2020
[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of
harvest the following year]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            :   Utilized production boxes 1/    :Utilized production ton equivalent 
       Crop and State       :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                            :    2018-2019    :    2019-2020    :    2018-2019    :    2019-2020    
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            :     ------ 1,000 boxes ------            ------ 1,000 tons -----      
Oranges                     :                                                                       
California, all ............:      51,400            48,500            2,056             1,940      
 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..:      42,000            40,000            1,680             1,600      
 Valencia ..................:       9,400             8,500              376               340      
                            :                                                                       
Florida, all ...............:      71,850            70,000            3,233             3,150      
 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..:      30,400            30,000            1,368             1,350      
 Valencia ..................:      41,450            40,000            1,865             1,800      
                            :                                                                       
Texas, all .................:       2,500             2,300              106                98      
 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..:       2,210             1,800               94                77      
 Valencia ..................:         290               500               12                21      
                            :                                                                       
United States, all .........:     125,750           120,800            5,395             5,188      
 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..:      74,610            71,800            3,142             3,027      
 Valencia ..................:      51,140            49,000            2,253             2,161      
                            :                                                                       
Grapefruit                  :                                                                       
California .................:       4,100             4,300              164               172      
Florida, all ...............:       4,510             5,200              192               221      
 Red .......................:       3,740             4,300              159               183      
 White .....................:         770               900               33                38      
Texas ......................:       6,100             5,800              244               232      
                            :                                                                       
United States ..............:      14,710            15,300              600               625      
                            :                                                                       
Tangerines and mandarins 3/ :                                                                       
California .................:      26,500            23,000            1,060               920      
Florida ....................:         990             1,050               47                50      
                            :                                                                       
United States ..............:      27,490            24,050            1,107               970      
                            :                                                                       
Lemons                      :                                                                       
Arizona ....................:       1,350             1,900               54                76      
California .................:      23,700            21,000              948               840      
                            :                                                                       
United States ..............:      25,050            22,900            1,002               916      
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, 
   Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80.          
2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties 
   in Florida and Texas.                                                                            
3/ Includes tangelos and tangors.                                                                   

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States:
2019 and 2020
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous
reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :       Area planted        :      Area harvested       
                  Crop                  :-------------------------------------------------------
                                        :    2019     :    2020     :    2019     :    2020     
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :                      1,000 acres                      
                                        :                                                       
Grains and hay                          :                                                       
Barley .................................:     2,721         2,921         2,182                 
Corn for grain 1/ ......................:    89,700        96,990        81,482                 
Corn for silage ........................:      (NA)                       6,587                 
Hay, all ...............................:      (NA)          (NA)        52,425       53,283    
  Alfalfa ..............................:      (NA)                      16,743                 
  All other ............................:      (NA)                      35,682                 
Oats ...................................:     2,810         3,012           826                 
Proso millet ...........................:       506                         465                 
Rice ...................................:     2,540         2,847         2,472                 
Rye ....................................:     1,865                         310                 
Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................:     5,265         5,820         4,675                 
Sorghum for silage .....................:      (NA)                         339                 
Wheat, all .............................:    45,158        44,655        37,162                 
  Winter ...............................:    31,159        30,775        24,327                 
  Durum ................................:     1,339         1,290         1,175                 
  Other spring .........................:    12,660        12,590        11,660                 
                                        :                                                       
Oilseeds                                :                                                       
Canola .................................:   2,040.0       1,989.0       1,910.0                 
Cottonseed .............................:       (X)                         (X)                 
Flaxseed ...............................:       374           270           319                 
Mustard seed ...........................:      98.0                        90.0                 
Peanuts ................................:   1,427.7       1,529.0       1,391.7                 
Rapeseed ...............................:      11.3                        10.4                 
Safflower ..............................:     165.8                       152.7                 
Soybeans for beans .....................:    76,100        83,510        75,021                 
Sunflower ..............................:   1,350.6       1,558.0       1,244.5                 
                                        :                                                       
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops        :                                                       
Cotton, all ............................:  13,737.8      13,703.0      11,804.5                 
  Upland ...............................:  13,508.0      13,475.0      11,580.0                 
  American Pima ........................:     229.8         228.0         224.5                 
Sugarbeets .............................:   1,132.0       1,138.5         979.3                 
Sugarcane ..............................:      (NA)                       913.2                 
Tobacco ................................:      (NA)          (NA)         227.1        201.8    
                                        :                                                       
Dry beans, peas, and lentils            :                                                       
Chickpeas ..............................:     451.4         306.0         404.0                 
Dry edible beans .......................:   1,287.4       1,372.0       1,176.5                 
Dry edible peas ........................:   1,103.0         971.0       1,052.0                 
Lentils ................................:     486.0         474.0         431.0                 
                                        :                                                       
Potatoes and miscellaneous              :                                                       
Hops ...................................:      (NA)                        56.5                 
Maple syrup ............................:      (NA)                        (NA)                 
Mushrooms ..............................:      (NA)                        (NA)                 
Peppermint oil .........................:      (NA)                        52.4                 
Potatoes ...............................:     968.3                       942.2                 
Spearmint oil ..........................:      (NA)                        18.5                 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See footnote(s) at end of table.                                                     --continued

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States:
2019 and 2020 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous
reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :      Yield per acre       :        Production         
                  Crop                  :-------------------------------------------------------
                                        :    2019     :    2020     :    2019     :    2020     
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :                             ------ 1,000 ------       
                                        :                                                       
Grains and hay                          :                                                       
Barley ..........................bushels:     77.7                       169,566                
Corn for grain ..................bushels:    168.0                    13,691,561                
Corn for silage ....................tons:     20.2                       132,807                
Hay, all ...........................tons:     2.46                       128,864                
  Alfalfa ..........................tons:     3.28                        54,875                
  All other ........................tons:     2.07                        73,989                
Oats ............................bushels:     64.3                        53,148                
Proso millet ....................bushels:     35.7                        16,608                
Rice 2/ .............................cwt:    7,471                       184,675                
Rye .............................bushels:     34.3                        10,622                
Sorghum for grain ...............bushels:     73.0                       341,460                
Sorghum for silage .................tons:     11.9                         4,019                
Wheat, all ......................bushels:     51.7                     1,920,139                
  Winter ........................bushels:     53.6                     1,304,003                
  Durum .........................bushels:     45.7                        53,756                
  Other spring ..................bushels:     48.2                       562,380                
                                        :                                                       
Oilseeds                                :                                                       
Canola ...........................pounds:    1,781                     3,402,000                
Cottonseed .........................tons:      (X)                       6,232.0                
Flaxseed ........................bushels:     20.0                         6,395                
Mustard seed .....................pounds:      706                        63,580                
Peanuts ..........................pounds:    3,949                     5,496,087                
Rapeseed .........................pounds:    2,160                        22,464                
Safflower ........................pounds:    1,272                       194,295                
Soybeans for beans ..............bushels:     47.4                     3,558,281                
Sunflower ........................pounds:    1,562                     1,943,435                
                                        :                                                       
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops        :                                                       
Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales:      817                      20,102.0                
  Upland 2/ .......................bales:      803                      19,380.0                
  American Pima 2/ ................bales:    1,544                         722.0                
Sugarbeets .........................tons:     29.2                        28,600                
Sugarcane ..........................tons:     35.0                        31,937                
Tobacco ..........................pounds:    2,060                       467,956                
                                        :                                                       
Dry beans, peas, and lentils            :                                                       
Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt:    1,544                         6,237                
Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt:    1,769                        20,811                
Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt:    2,124                        22,346                
Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt:    1,250                         5,388                
                                        :                                                       
Potatoes and miscellaneous              :                                                       
Hops .............................pounds:    1,981                     112,041.2                
Maple syrup .....................gallons:     (NA)                         4,240                
Mushrooms ........................pounds:     (NA)                       846,491                
Peppermint oil ...................pounds:      104                         5,452                
Potatoes ............................cwt:      449                       422,890                
Spearmint oil ....................pounds:      130                         2,413                
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.                                                                             
(X)  Not applicable.                                                                            
1/   Area planted for all purposes.                                                             
2/   Yield in pounds.                                                                           

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States:
2019 and 2020
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from
previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year. Blank data
cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                :       Area planted        :      Area harvested       
              Crop              :-------------------------------------------------------
                                :    2019     :    2020     :    2019     :    2020     
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                :                       hectares                        
                                :                                                       
Grains and hay                  :                                                       
Barley .........................:  1,101,160     1,182,100       883,030                
Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 36,300,690    39,250,880    32,974,950                
Corn for silage ................:       (NA)                   2,665,690                
Hay, all 2/ ....................:       (NA)          (NA)    21,215,870    21,563,100  
  Alfalfa ......................:       (NA)                   6,775,720                
  All other ....................:       (NA)                  14,440,150                
Oats ...........................:  1,137,180     1,218,930       334,270                
Proso millet ...................:    204,770                     188,180                
Rice ...........................:  1,027,910     1,152,150     1,000,390                
Rye ............................:    754,750                     125,450                
Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........:  2,130,690     2,355,300     1,891,930                
Sorghum for silage .............:       (NA)                     137,190                
Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 18,274,990    18,071,430    15,039,090                
  Winter .......................: 12,609,740    12,454,330     9,844,890                
  Durum ........................:    541,880       522,050       475,510                
  Other spring .................:  5,123,380     5,095,050     4,718,690                
                                :                                                       
Oilseeds                        :                                                       
Canola .........................:    825,570       804,930       772,960                
Cottonseed .....................:        (X)                         (X)                
Flaxseed .......................:    151,350       109,270       129,100                
Mustard seed ...................:     39,660                      36,420                
Peanuts ........................:    577,780       618,770       563,210                
Rapeseed .......................:      4,570                       4,210                
Safflower ......................:     67,100                      61,800                
Soybeans for beans .............: 30,796,910    33,795,660    30,360,250                
Sunflower ......................:    546,570       630,510       503,640                
                                :                                                       
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops:                                                       
Cotton, all 2/ .................:  5,559,550     5,545,470     4,777,160                
  Upland .......................:  5,466,550     5,453,200     4,686,310                
  American Pima ................:     93,000        92,270        90,850                
Sugarbeets .....................:    458,110       460,740       396,310                
Sugarcane ......................:       (NA)                     369,560                
Tobacco ........................:       (NA)          (NA)        91,910        81,670  
                                :                                                       
Dry beans, peas, and lentils    :                                                       
Chickpeas ......................:    182,680       123,840       163,490                
Dry edible beans ...............:    521,000       555,230       476,120                
Dry edible peas ................:    446,370       392,950       425,730                
Lentils ........................:    196,680       191,820       174,420                
                                :                                                       
Potatoes and miscellaneous      :                                                       
Hops ...........................:       (NA)                      22,880                
Maple syrup ....................:       (NA)                        (NA)                
Mushrooms ......................:       (NA)                        (NA)                
Peppermint oil .................:       (NA)                      21,210                
Potatoes .......................:    391,860                     381,300                
Spearmint oil ..................:       (NA)                       7,490                
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See footnote(s) at end of table.                                             --continued

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States:
2019 and 2020 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous
reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :     Yield per hectare     :        Production         
                  Crop                  :-------------------------------------------------------
                                        :    2019     :    2020     :    2019     :    2020     
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :                      metric tons                      
                                        :                                                       
Grains and hay                          :                                                       
Barley .................................:     4.18                      3,691,860               
Corn for grain .........................:    10.55                    347,781,670               
Corn for silage ........................:    45.20                    120,480,480               
Hay, all 2/ ............................:     5.51                    116,903,450               
  Alfalfa ..............................:     7.35                     49,781,760               
  All other ............................:     4.65                     67,121,690               
Oats ...................................:     2.31                        771,440               
Proso millet ...........................:     2.00                        376,660               
Rice ...................................:     8.37                      8,376,720               
Rye ....................................:     2.15                        269,810               
Sorghum for grain ......................:     4.58                      8,673,480               
Sorghum for silage .....................:    26.58                      3,645,980               
Wheat, all 2/ ..........................:     3.47                     52,257,620               
  Winter ...............................:     3.60                     35,489,150               
  Durum ................................:     3.08                      1,463,000               
  Other spring .........................:     3.24                     15,305,480               
                                        :                                                       
Oilseeds                                :                                                       
Canola .................................:     2.00                      1,543,120               
Cottonseed .............................:      (X)                      5,653,580               
Flaxseed ...............................:     1.26                        162,440               
Mustard seed ...........................:     0.79                         28,840               
Peanuts ................................:     4.43                      2,492,980               
Rapeseed ...............................:     2.42                         10,190               
Safflower ..............................:     1.43                         88,130               
Soybeans for beans .....................:     3.19                     96,840,540               
Sunflower ..............................:     1.75                        881,530               
                                        :                                                       
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops        :                                                       
Cotton, all 2/ .........................:     0.92                      4,376,690               
  Upland ...............................:     0.90                      4,219,500               
  American Pima ........................:     1.73                        157,200               
Sugarbeets .............................:    65.47                     25,945,480               
Sugarcane ..............................:    78.40                     28,972,760               
Tobacco ................................:     2.31                        212,260               
                                        :                                                       
Dry beans, peas, and lentils            :                                                       
Chickpeas ..............................:     1.73                        282,910               
Dry edible beans .......................:     1.98                        943,970               
Dry edible peas ........................:     2.38                      1,013,600               
Lentils ................................:     1.40                        244,400               
                                        :                                                       
Potatoes and miscellaneous              :                                                       
Hops ...................................:     2.22                         50,820               
Maple syrup ............................:     (NA)                         21,200               
Mushrooms ..............................:     (NA)                        383,960               
Peppermint oil .........................:     0.12                          2,470               
Potatoes ...............................:    50.31                     19,181,970               
Spearmint oil ..........................:     0.15                          1,090               
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.                                                                             
(X)  Not applicable.                                                                            
1/   Area planted for all purposes.                                                             
2/   Total may not add due to rounding.                                                         

Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2019-2020 season. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           :            Production             
                    Crop                   :-----------------------------------
                                           :      2019       :      2020       
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Citrus 1/                                  :                                   
Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons:          600             625      
Lemons ..........................1,000 tons:        1,002             916      
Oranges .........................1,000 tons:        5,395           5,188      
Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons:        1,107             970      
                                           :                                   
Noncitrus                                  :                                   
Apples, commercial ..........million pounds:     10,630.0                      
Apricots ..............................tons:       64,500                      
Avocados ..............................tons:                                   
Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds:                                   
Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds:                                   
Cherries, Sweet .......................tons:      362,000                      
Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds:        290.2                      
Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds:       26,430                      
Cranberries .........................barrel:    9,040,000                      
                                           :                                   
Dates .................................tons:                                   
Grapes ................................tons:    7,500,000                      
Kiwifruit (California) ................tons:                                   
Nectarines (California) ...............tons:                                   
Olives (California) ...................tons:                                   
Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds:                                   
Peaches ...............................tons:      733,500                      
Pears .................................tons:      805,000                      
Plums (California) ....................tons:                                   
Prunes (California) ...................tons:      110,000                      
Raspberries, all  .............1,000 pounds:                                   
Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt:                                   
                                           :                                   
Nuts and miscellaneous                     :                                   
Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds:    2,200,000                      
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons:       49,000                      
Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds:                                   
Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds:      264,500                      
Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds:                                   
Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons:      630,000                      
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Production years are 2018-2019 and 2019-2020.                               

Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2019-2020 season. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           :            Production             
                    Crop                   :-----------------------------------
                                           :      2019       :      2020       
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           :            metric tons            
                                           :                                   
Citrus 1/                                  :                                   
Grapefruit ................................:      544,310           566,990    
Lemons ....................................:      909,000           830,980    
Oranges ...................................:    4,894,260         4,706,470    
Tangerines and mandarins ..................:    1,004,250           879,970    
                                           :                                   
Noncitrus                                  :                                   
Apples, commercial ........................:    4,821,690                      
Apricots ..................................:       58,510                      
Avocados ..................................:                                   
Blueberries, Cultivated ...................:                                   
Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................:                                   
Cherries, Sweet ...........................:      328,400                      
Cherries, Tart ............................:      131,630                      
Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................:       11,990                      
Cranberries ...............................:      410,050                      
                                           :                                   
Dates .....................................:                                   
Grapes ....................................:    6,803,890                      
Kiwifruit (California) ....................:                                   
Nectarines (California) ...................:                                   
Olives (California) .......................:                                   
Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................:                                   
Peaches ...................................:      665,420                      
Pears .....................................:      730,280                      
Plums (California) ........................:                                   
Prunes (California) .......................:       99,790                      
Raspberries, all ..........................:                                   
Strawberries ..............................:                                   
                                           :                                   
Nuts and miscellaneous                     :                                   
Almonds, shelled (California) .............:      997,900                      
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............:       44,450                      
Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................:                                   
Pecans, in-shell ..........................:      119,980                      
Pistachios (California) ...................:                                   
Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............:      571,530                      
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Production years are 2018-2019 and 2019-2020.                               

March Weather Summary

A wet March in California's key watershed areas dented seasonal precipitation 
deficits and improved the average water equivalency of the Sierra Nevada 
snowpack from 10 to 15 inches, according to the California Department of 
Water Resources. However, the 15-inch equivalency on April 1, the traditional 
peak snowpack date, was barely one-half of normal.

Pockets of dryness and drought existed in other areas of the West, including 
the Four Corners region, the Great Basin, and the Pacific Northwest 
(excluding western Washington). In contrast, March was a very wet month 
across the southern tier of the West, stretching from southern California to 
southern New Mexico.

Meanwhile, drought intensified during March along and near the Gulf Coast, 
including Florida, amid summer-like heat and near-record to record-setting 
dryness. No measurable rain fell during the month in Florida locations such 
as Tampa and Lakeland. By March 29, Florida's topsoil moisture was rated 
65 percent very short to short, up from 20 percent just 4 weeks earlier. 
Although the dryness favored planting operations, there was little moisture 
for germination and establishment. In Texas, 56 percent of the intended rice 
acreage had been planted by March 29, compared to the 5-year average of 
25 percent. While drought worsened in coastal Texas, interior sections of 
southern Texas received much-needed rain.

Many other parts of the country, including the southern Plains and interior 
South, experienced a wet month, hampering spring fieldwork. By late March, 
topsoil moisture in Tennessee was rated 60 percent surplus. Early-spring 
precipitation also plagued much of the Midwest, maintaining soggy conditions 
in fields and feedlots. Late-March topsoil moisture was rated at least 
one-half surplus in several Midwestern States, including Ohio (72 percent), 
Illinois (56 percent), Missouri (56 percent), Indiana (53 percent), and 
Michigan (50 percent).

Farther west, conditions remained mostly favorable on the Plains, where all 
major winter wheat-production states reported at least one-half of the 
winter wheat rated in good to excellent condition by late March. Still, 
pockets of drought on the High Plains adversely affected a portion of the 
crop, with 27 percent of Colorado's winter wheat rated very poor to poor. In 
North Dakota, the corn harvest was 75 percent complete by the end of March, 
although a mild, mostly dry month allowed for orderly melting of snow that 
had been on the ground in the eastern part of the state since Thanksgiving.

In fact, warmer-than-normal March weather dominated areas from the Plains to 
the East Coast, with temperatures averaging at least 5F above normal across 
much of the southern and eastern United States. Conversely, cooler-than-
normal conditions covered the West, particularly across southern California 
and the Desert Southwest.

March Agricultural Summary

March was warmer than normal for most of the eastern half of the Nation. 
Temperatures averaged 5F or more above normal for most of the South and much 
of the Mid-Atlantic Region. Much of the Gulf Coast saw temperatures 8F or 
more above normal for the month of March. In contrast, much of the western 
half of the Nation saw below average temperatures for the month of March. In 
parts of California and Montana temperatures averaged 5F or more below 
normal.

During the month of March, much of the Midwest, the South, the Southwest, and 
Texas, received higher than average precipitation. Much of the South received 
6 inches of rain or more. In contrast, Florida, the Gulf Coast Region, and 
parts of the Northwest and Upper Midwest saw drier than normal conditions, 
with most of Florida and the Gulf Coast receiving little or no rain in March.

In Kansas, 43 percent of the winter wheat acreage was rated in good to 
excellent condition on March 1, but improved during the month with 50 percent 
rated in good to excellent condition on March 29. In Texas, 36 percent of the 
acreage was rated in good to excellent condition on March 1, but improved 
during the month with 56 percent of the acreage rated in good to excellent 
condition on March 29.

In Arizona and Texas, 19 percent and 29 percent of pasture and rangeland was 
rated in very poor to poor condition, respectively on March 1. On March 29, 
Arizona had 20 percent of pasture and rangeland rated very poor to poor. In 
Texas, conditions had improved with 22 percent of pasture and rangeland rated 
in very poor to poor condition.

In Florida, March temperatures were on average 1 to 10 degrees warmer than 
historical values. Total rainfall for the month ranged from no rain in 
multiple locations to 3.7 inches in Leon County. According to the 
U.S. Drought Monitor, the State went from 39.5 percent experiencing 
abnormally dry conditions at the beginning of March to 88.5 percent by the 
end of the month. Pasture conditions steadily declined throughout the month 
due to the dry soil and the increasing temperatures. Cattle conditions 
remained mostly good. Sugarcane harvest was ongoing. Pest and disease 
pressures were reported on strawberries and tomatoes throughout the month. 
Citrus fruit harvested for the fresh market included white and red 
grapefruit, Valencia oranges, as well as Honey, Tango, and Royal tangerines. 
Citrus grove activities were normal for this time of year, which included 
mowing before harvest, fertilizing, hedging, topping, and irrigation.

Crop Comments

Grapefruit: The United States 2019-2020 grapefruit crop is forecast at 
625,000 tons, down 2 percent from the previous forecast but up 4 percent from 
last season's revised final utilization. In Texas, expected production, at 
5.80 million boxes (232,000 tons), is down 6 percent from the previous 
forecast and down 5 percent from last year.

Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is 
forecast at 970,000 tons, up 4 percent from the previous forecast but 
down 12 percent from last season's revised final utilization. The California 
tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 23.0 million boxes (920,000 ton), is 
up 5 percent from the previous forecast but down 13 percent from last year's 
revised total.

Lemons: The 2019-2020 United States lemon crop is forecast at 916,000 tons, 
up 12 percent from previous forecast but down 9 percent from last season's 
revised final utilization. The California production forecast, at 
21.0 million boxes (840,000 tons), is up 11 percent from last month but 
down 11 percent from the revised 2018-2019 season total.

Statistical Methodology

Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the April 1 forecast 
was conducted in Florida. In August and September of last year, the number of 
bearing trees and number of fruit per tree is determined. In August and 
subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are 
conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the 
current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower surveys 
on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also 
conducts objective measurement surveys in September for Navel oranges and in 
March for Valencia oranges.

Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida 
oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with 
historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analysis of the 
current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses 
the Florida survey data and their analyses to prepare the published April 1 
forecast. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for 
setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current 
situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey 
data and the State analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast.

Revision policy: The April 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new 
forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season 
estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. 
The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the 
marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and 
processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and 
home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 
production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure 
based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 
production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of 
the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the 
latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes 
statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be 
made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the 
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's 
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 orange production forecast is 
3.0 percent. However, if you exclude the four abnormal production years 
(three hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 3.2 percent. This 
means chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will 
not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.0 percent, or 
3.2 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent 
confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.2 percent, or 
5.6 percent, excluding abnormal seasons.

Changes between the April 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during 
the past 20 years have averaged 155,000 tons (174,000 tons, excluding 
abnormal seasons), ranging from 0 to 502,000 tons regardless of exclusions. 
The April 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times, 
above 11 times, and equal once (below 6 times, above 10 times, and equal once 
excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the April 1 
forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production.

Reliability of April 1 Crop Production Forecasts
[Based on data for the past twenty years]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :            :           :      Difference between forecast       
                              :            :           :           and final estimate           
                              :            :           :----------------------------------------
                              :            :90 percent :       Production       :     Years     
             Crop             : Root mean  :confidence :----------------------------------------
                              :square error: interval  :       :        :       : Below : Above 
                              :            :           :Average:Smallest:Largest: final : final 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :    ---- percent ---       ----- millions -----        number    
                              :                                                                 
Oranges 1/ ...............tons:    3.0          5.2       155      0       502      8      11   
  Oranges 1/ 2/ ..........tons:    3.2          5.6       174      0       502      6      10   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Quantity is in thousands of units.                                                           
2/ Excluding freeze and hurricane seasons.                                                      

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural 
Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to 
nass@usda.gov

Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch.................................................... (202) 720-2127

Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section........................................... (202) 720-2127
     David Colwell - Current Agricultural Industrial Reports........................ (202) 720-8800
     Chris Hawthorn - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet.................................. (202) 720-2127
     James Johanson - County Estimates, Hay......................................... (202) 690-8533
     Jeff Lemmons - Oats, Soybeans.................................................. (202) 690-3234
     Irwin Anolik - Crop Weather.................................................... (202) 720-7621
     Chris Hawthorn - Peanuts, Rice................................................. (202) 720-2127
     Jean Porter - Rye, Wheat....................................................... (202) 720-8068
Chris Singh - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum...................................... (202) 720-5944
     Travis Thorson - Barley, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds............................. (202) 720-7369

Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section............. (202) 720-2127
Joshua Bates - Almonds, Apples, Apricots, Asparagus, Carrots, Coffee, Onions,
Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco.................................................. (202) 720-4288
    Fleming Gibson - Cauliflower, Celery, Grapefruit, Lemons, Macadamia,
Mandarins and tangerines, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges................................ (202) 720-5412
    Greg Lemmons - Cranberries, Cucumbers, Pistachios, Potatoes, Pumpkins, 
Raspberries, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes,
Tame Blueberries, Wild Blueberries.................................................. (202) 720-4285
    Dan Norris - Artichokes, Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Green Peas, Lentils,
          Nectarines, Papayas, Peaches, Snap Beans, Spinach, Walnuts, Watermelons .. (202) 720-3250
 Krishna Rizal - Dry Beans, Garlic, Hazelnuts, Honeydews, Kiwifruit, Lettuce,
Maple Syrup, Mint, Pears, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Tomatoes................... (202) 720-2157
    Dawn Smoker - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chickpeas, 
Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Pecans............................ (202) 720-4215

Access to NASS Reports

For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following 
ways:

 	All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web 
site: www.nass.usda.gov

 	Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e-
mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit 
www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right 
corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports 
you would like to receive.

 	Cornell's Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS's and 
other agency's archived reports. The new website, 
https://usda.library.cornell.edu. All email subscriptions containing 
reports will be sent from the new website, 
https://usda.library.cornell.edu. To continue receiving the reports via 
e-mail, you will have to go to the new website, create a new account 
and re-subscribe to the reports. If you need instructions to set up an 
account or subscribe, they are located at: 
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/help. You should whitelist 
notifications@usda-esmis.library.cornell.edu in your email client to 
avoid the emails going into spam/junk folders. 

For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural 
Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: 
nass@usda.gov. 
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against 
its customers, employees, and applicants for employment on the basis of race, 
color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion, 
reprisal, and where applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial 
or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's 
income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic 
information in employment or in any program or activity conducted or funded 
by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs 
and/or employment activities.) 
If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, 
complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form (PDF), found online 
at www.ascr.usda.gov/filing-program-discrimination-complaint-usda-customer, 
or at any USDA office, or call (866) 632-9992 to request the form. You may 
also write a letter containing all of the information requested in the form. 
Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department 
of Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue, 
S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, by fax (202) 690-7442 or email at 
program.intake@usda.gov. 

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