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[ More Barley News ]

Analysis

Fri 2/5/10

Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Price is below the moving average so the trend is down.

Additional Analysis: Market trend is DOWN.

Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Short Term: The market is EXTREMELY BEARISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to lower prices: the fast average is below the slow average; the fast average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; and price is below the fast average and the slow average. WARNING: Market momentum slowed down on this bar. This is indicated by the fact that the difference between the two moving average lines is smaller on this bar than on the previous bar. Its possible that we may see a market rally.

Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Long Term: Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bearish, we will not classify it as extremely bearish until the following occurs: the slow moving average slope is down from previous bar.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold condition. An oversold reading occurs when the close is nearer to the bottom band than the top band.

Additional Analysis: The market is oversold and appears to be finding some support. Confirming this, the market just signaled a bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low. Look for a bottom in this area.

Volatility Indicator: Volatility is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average.

Momentum Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (-9.50) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Momentum is indicating an oversold market. And, a 9 bar bullish key reversal here suggests an upside move is possible.

Rate of change Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (-6.01) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Rate of Change is indicating an oversold market. And, a bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low here suggests an upside move is possible.

Comm Channel Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: CCI (-11.04) is in neutral territory. A signal is generated only when the CCI crosses above or below the neutral center region.

Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (-11.04) is currently short. The current short position will be reversed when the CCI crosses above zero. The market just signaled a bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low, suggesting closing any shorts here.

RSI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 48.49). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat oversold (RSI is at 48.49), suggesting a possible rally. Supporting this outlook, the bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low here suggests an upturn in the market.

MACD Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bearish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. MACD is in bearish territory. However, the market just signaled a bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low.

Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average. While this is normal following delivery of nearer term contracts, be cautious. Decreasing open interest indicates lower liquidity.

Volume Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.

Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is DOWN. A bullish key reversal off a 5 bar new low here suggests an upmove, and decreasing volume supports the likelihood of an upturn in the market.

Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is in oversold territory (SlowK is at 11.15; this indicates a possible market rise is coming.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. SlowK is showing the market is oversold. Look for a bottom soon. The short term trend is UP. SlowK was up this bar for the first time in a while. Its possible that we may see an up move here. if next bar's SlowK is also up, then a possible bottom may have been established.

Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is in oversold territory (SlowK is at 14.26); this indicates a possible market rise is coming.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. The short term trend is down. SlowK is showing the market is oversold. Look for a bottom soon.

Swing Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The swing index has crossed zero, identifying this bar as a short term pivot point.

Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.