Heating Oil
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Daily Commodity Futures Price Chart: May 2017

Heating Oil (NYMEX)

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Contract Specifications:HO,NYMEX
Trading Unit: 42,000 U.S. gallons (1,000 barrels)
Tick Size: $0.0001 (0.01c) per gallon ($4.20 per contract)
Quoted Units: US $ per gallon
Initial Margin: $12,150   Maint Margin: $9,000
Contract Months: All 12 months.
First Notice Day: Second business day after last trading day.
Last Trading Day: Trading terminates at the close of business on the last business day of the month preceding the delivery month.
Trading Hours: Trading is conducted from 10:05 A.M. until 2:30 P.M.
Evening 3:15 P.M. on Mondays through Thursdays and concluding at 9:00 A.M. the following day.
On Sundays, the session begins at 7:00 P.M. All times are New York time.
Daily Limit: $0.25 per gallon ($10,500 per contract)

Analysis

Mon 3/27/17

Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Price is below the moving average so the trend is down.

Additional Analysis: Market trend is DOWN.

Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Short Term: Recently the market has been extremely bearish, however currently the market has lost a some of its bearishness due to the following: the slow moving average slope is up from previous bar, price is above the fast moving average. Its possible that we may see a market rally here. if so, the rally might turn out to be a good short selling opportunity.

Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Long Term: Recently the market has been extremely bearish, however currently the market has lost a some of its bearishness due to the following: the fast moving average slope is up from previous bar. Its possible that we may see a market rally here. if so, the rally might turn out to be a good short selling opportunity.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold condition. An oversold reading occurs when the close is nearer to the bottom band than the top band.

Additional Analysis: The market is in oversold territory.

Volatility Indicator: Volatility is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average.

Momentum Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (0.00) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Momentum is indicating an overbought market. However the market may continue to become more overbought. Look for some evidenced weakness before getting too bearish here.

Rate of change Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (0.04) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Rate of Change is indicating an overbought market. However the market may continue to become more overbought. Look for some evidenced weakness before closing long positions here.

Comm Channel Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: CCI (-68.37) is in neutral territory. A signal is generated only when the CCI crosses above or below the neutral center region.

Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (-68.37) is currently short. The current short position will be reversed when the CCI crosses above zero.

ADX Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is rising.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is down. A rising ADX indicates that the current trend is healthy and should remain intact. Look for the current downtrending market to continue.

DMI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: DMI+ is less than DMI-, indicating a downward trending market. A signal is generated when DMI+ crosses DMI-.

Additional Analysis: DMI is in bearish territory.

RSI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 34.83). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat oversold (RSI is at 34.83). However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence here before getting too bullish here.

MACD Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bearish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the MacdMA may indicate a short term rally within the next few bars.

Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is trending up based on a 9 bar moving average. This is normal as delivery approaches and indicates increased liquidity.

Volume Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.

Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is DOWN. Volume is trending higher, allowing for a pick up in volatility.

Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is in oversold territory (SlowK is at 17.33; this indicates a possible market rise is coming. The stochastic is bullish because the SlowK line is above SlowD line.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. The short term trend is DOWN. Don't be fooled looking for a bottom here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking bottoms in a Bull Market (in which we are not). Exit short positions only if some other indicator tells you to.

Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed above the SlowD line; this indicates a buy signal. The stochastic is in oversold territory (SlowK is at 14.83); this indicates a possible market rise is coming.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. The short term trend is DOWN. Don't be fooled looking for a bottom here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking bottoms in a Bull Market (in which we are not). Exit short positions only if some other indicator tells you to.

Swing Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The swing index is most often used to identify bars where the market is likely to change direction. A signal is generated when the swing index crosses zero. No signal has been generated here.

Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.

Lt Crude 48.44
Nat Gas 3.092
Corn 357 6/8
Cotton #2 76.88
Gold 1251.4
Copper 2.6690
Euro 1.08565
USD Index 99.549
SP500 E-mini 2352.25
DJIA E-mini 20625
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