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Analysis

Fri 11/6/09

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold condition. An oversold reading occurs when the close is nearer to the bottom band than the top band.

Additional Analysis: The market is in oversold territory.

Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Short Term: Recently the market has been extremely bullish, however currently the market has lost a some of its bullishness due to the following: the fast moving average slope is down from the previous bar, price is below the fast moving average, price is below the slow moving average. Its possible that we may see a market pullback here. if so, the pullback might turn out to be a good buying opportunity.

Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Long Term: Recently the market has been extremely bullish, however currently the market has lost a some of its bullishness due to the following: price is below the fast moving average, price is below the slow moving average. Its possible that we may see a market pullback here. if so, the pullback might turn out to be a good buying opportunity.

Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Price is above the moving average so the trend is up.

Additional Analysis: Market trend is UP.

RSI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 51.67). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat overbought (RSI is at 51.67). However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence before getting too bearish here.

Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is bearish because the SlowK line is below the SlowD line.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. The short term trend is down. SlowK is starting to show the market is oversold. A bottom may not be far off. The short term trend looks a little toppy. A possible short term down move may occur.

Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is bearish because the SlowK line is below the SlowD line.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. The short term trend is down. The short term trend looks a little toppy. A possible short term down move may occur.

Swing Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The swing index is most often used to identify bars where the market is likely to change direction. A signal is generated when the swing index crosses zero. No signal has been generated here.

Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

Volatility Indicator: Volatility is trending up based on a 9 bar moving average.

Volume Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.

Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is DOWN. Volume is trending higher, allowing for a pick up in volatility.

ADX Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is falling.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is up. However, a falling ADX indicates that the current trend is weakening and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppy market ahead.

Comm Channel Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: CCI (-22.39) is in neutral territory. A signal is generated only when the CCI crosses above or below the neutral center region.

Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (-22.39) has crossed below zero, issuing a signal to liquidate long positions and initiate short positions.

DMI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: DMI+ is greater than DMI-, indicating an upward trending market. A signal is generated when DMI+ crosses DMI-.

Additional Analysis: DMI is in bullish territory.

MACD Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: MACD has issued a bearish signal. A bearish signal is generated when the FastMA crosses below the SlowMA, as it has here.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. MACD has issued a bearish signal, suggesting a reversal of the current upward trend. However, MACD tends to be better at picking bottoms than tops. Look for evidenced weakness before establishing any bearish positions here.

Momentum Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (-7.75) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is in bearish territory.

Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is trending up based on a 9 bar moving average. This is normal as delivery approaches and indicates increased liquidity.

Rate of change Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (-1.78) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Rate of Change is in bearish territory.

Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.