Lumber (Globex)
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Intraday Commodity Futures Price Chart: May 2019

Lumber (Globex) (CME)

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Analysis

Tue 7/17/18

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an overbought market. An overbought reading occurs when the close is nearer to the top band than the bottom band.

Additional Analysis: The market appears overbought, but may continue to become more overbought before reversing. Look for some price weakness before taking any bearish positions based on this indicator.

Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Short Term: Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bearish, we will not classify it as extremely bearish until the following occurs: the fast moving average slope is down from previous bar, price goes below the fast moving average, price goes below the slow moving average.

Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Long Term: Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bearish, we will not classify it as extremely bearish until the following occurs: the slow moving average slope is down from previous bar, price goes below the fast moving average, price goes below the slow moving average.

Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Price is below the moving average so the trend is down.

Additional Analysis: Market trend is DOWN.

RSI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 48.13). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat oversold (RSI is at 48.13), suggesting a possible rally. Supporting this outlook, the bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low here suggests an upturn in the market.

Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed above the SlowD line; this indicates a buy signal.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. The short term trend looks a little bottomy. A possible short term up move may occur.

Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is bearish because the SlowK line is below the SlowD line.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. The short term trend is DOWN. Don't be fooled looking for a bottom here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking bottoms in a Bull Market (in which we are not). Exit short positions only if some other indicator tells you to.

Swing Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The swing index is most often used to identify bars where the market is likely to change direction. A signal is generated when the swing index crosses zero. No signal has been generated here.

Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

Volatility Indicator: Volatility is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average.

Volume Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.

Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is DOWN. A bullish key reversal off a 5 bar new low here suggests an upmove.

ADX Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is falling.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is down. A falling ADX indicates that the current trend is weakening and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppy market ahead.

Comm Channel Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: CCI (-14.09) is in neutral territory. A signal is generated only when the CCI crosses above or below the neutral center region.

Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (-14.09) is currently short. The current short position will be reversed when the CCI crosses above zero. The market just signaled a bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low, suggesting closing any shorts here.

DMI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: DMI signals a bullish trade when the DMI+ crosses above the DMI-, as it has here.

Additional Analysis: DMI has signaled a bullish trade. A bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low here strengthens this outlook.

MACD Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: MACD has issued a bullish signal. A bullish signal is generated when the FastMA crosses above the SlowMA, as it has here.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN.

Momentum Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (-13.80) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Momentum is indicating an oversold market and appears to be slowing, suggesting some strength. A modest upturn is possible here. A bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low here confirms this outlook.

Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is trending up based on a 9 bar moving average. This is normal as delivery approaches and indicates increased liquidity.

Rate of change Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (-3.15) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Rate of Change is indicating an oversold market and appears to be slowing, suggesting some strength. A modest upturn is possible here. A bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low here confirms this outlook.

Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.

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