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Analysis

Tue 11/24/09

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold condition. An oversold reading occurs when the close is nearer to the bottom band than the top band.

Additional Analysis: The market is in oversold territory.

Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Short Term: Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bearish, we will not classify it as extremely bearish until the following occurs: the slow moving average slope is down from previous bar, price goes below the fast moving average.

Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Long Term: Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bullish, we will not classify it as extremely bullish until the following occurs: price goes above the fast moving average, price goes above the slow moving average.

Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Price is above the moving average so the trend is up.

Additional Analysis: Market trend is UP.

Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is bearish because the SlowK line is below the SlowD line.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. A good upward move is possible without SlowK being overbought. However, a down move in SlowK for this bar is a little concerning short term.

Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is bearish because the SlowK line is below the SlowD line.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. The short term trend is down. The short term trend looks a little toppy. The fact that we've had three down bars of SlowK and we're trading in a high area of the stochastic is a little bearish short term. A possible short term down move may occur.

Swing Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The swing index has crossed zero, identifying this bar as a short term pivot point.

Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

Volatility Indicator: The volatility trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, has just switched to down.

Volume Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.

Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is DOWN. Volume is trending higher, allowing for a pick up in volatility.

RSI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 52.42). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat overbought (RSI is at 52.42). However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence before getting too bearish here.

ADX Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is falling.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is up. However, a falling ADX indicates that the current trend is weakening and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppy market ahead.

Comm Channel Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: CCI (2.51) is in neutral territory. A signal is generated only when the CCI crosses above or below the neutral center region.

Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (2.51) has crossed above zero, issuing a signal to close short positions and initiate long positions.

DMI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: DMI+ is less than DMI-, indicating a downward trending market. A signal is generated when DMI+ crosses DMI-.

Additional Analysis: DMI is in bearish territory.

MACD Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bearish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. MACD is in bearish territory.

Momentum Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (-0.01) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Momentum is in bearish territory.

Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average. While this is normal following delivery of nearer term contracts, be cautious. Decreasing open interest indicates lower liquidity.

Rate of change Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (-0.87) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Rate of Change is in bearish territory.

Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.