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Analysis

Fri 5/9/08

Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Price is below the moving average so the trend is down.

Additional Analysis: Market trend is DOWN.

Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Short Term: Recently the market has been extremely bearish, however currently the market has lost a some of its bearishness due to the following: the slow moving average slope is up from previous bar, price is above the fast moving average. Its possible that we may see a market rally here. if so, the rally might turn out to be a good short selling opportunity.

Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Long Term: Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bullish, we will not classify it as extremely bullish until the following occurs: the slow moving average slope is up from previous bar, price goes above the fast moving average, price goes above the slow moving average.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold condition. An oversold reading occurs when the close is nearer to the bottom band than the top band.

Additional Analysis: The market is in oversold territory.

Volatility Indicator: Volatility is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average.

Momentum Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (0.01) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Momentum is indicating an overbought market. However the market may continue to become more overbought. Look for some evidenced weakness before getting too bearish here.

Rate of change Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (0.01) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Rate of Change is indicating an overbought market. However the market may continue to become more overbought. Look for some evidenced weakness before closing long positions here.

Comm Channel Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: CCI (-79.87) has crossed back into the neutral region, issuing a signal to liquidate short positions and return to the sidelines. The range from -100.00 to 100.00 indicates a neutral market.

Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation,CCI (-79.87) is bearish, but has begun showing some strength. Begin looking for an attractive point to cover short positions and return to the sidelines.

RSI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 46.52). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat oversold (RSI is at 46.52). However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence here before getting too bullish here.

MACD Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bearish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. MACD is in bearish territory.

Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average. While this is normal following delivery of nearer term contracts, be cautious. Decreasing open interest indicates lower liquidity.

Volume Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.

Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is DOWN. Volume is trending lower. In general this is bearish.

Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is bullish because the SlowK line is above SlowD line.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. The short term trend is UP. SlowK was up this bar for the second bar in a row. We may have seen the bottom of the down move for a while. The market looks strong both long term and short term. The SlowK is at (25.00). A good upward move is possible without SlowK being overbought.

Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is bearish because the SlowK line is below the SlowD line.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. SlowK is starting to show the market is oversold. A bottom may not be far off. The short term trend is UP. SlowK was up this bar for the second bar in a row. We may have seen the bottom of the down move for a while.

Swing Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The swing index is most often used to identify bars where the market is likely to change direction. A signal is generated when the swing index crosses zero. No signal has been generated here.

Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.

Note: The above analysis is computer generated from mathematical formulae, and is provided for educational purposes only. Neither the above, nor any information on this site is intended as a trade recommendation.