Feeder Cattle
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Daily Commodity Futures Price Chart: Aug. 2016

Feeder Cattle (CME)

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Contract Specifications:FC,CME
Trading Unit: 50,000 pounds
Tick Size: 0.00025=$12.50
Quoted Units: US $ per pound
Initial Margin: $1,485   Maint Margin: $1,100
Contract Months: Jan, Mar, Apr, May, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov
First Notice Day: Not applicable (cash settled contract)
Last Trading Day: Last Thursday of the month.
Trading Hours: 9:05 a.m. - 1:00 p.m. Chicago time, Mon-Fri.
Trading in expiring contracts closes at 12:00 p.m. on the last trading day.
Daily Limit: $.030/lb

Analysis

Thu 7/28/16

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an overbought market. An overbought reading occurs when the close is nearer to the top band than the bottom band.

Additional Analysis: Volatility appears to be picking up a bit, as evidenced by an increasing distance between the upper and lower bands over the last few bars. The market is in overbought territory. And, the market just signaled a 9 bar bearish key reversal adding to the chance for a decline here.

Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Short Term: Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bullish, we will not classify it as extremely bullish until the following occurs: price goes above the fast moving average.

Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Long Term: Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bearish, we will not classify it as extremely bearish until the following occurs: the fast moving average slope is down from previous bar, price goes below the fast moving average.

Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Price is below the moving average so the trend is down.

Additional Analysis: CAUTION: The market trend has changed direction. Now the market trend is DOWN!

Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed below the SlowD line; this indicates a sell signal.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. The short term trend is DOWN. SlowK was down this bar for the first time in a while. Its possible that we may see a down move here. if next bar's SlowK is also down, then a possible top may have been established. The market looks weak both long term and short term. The SlowK is at (63.03). A good downward move is possible without SlowK being oversold.

Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is bullish because the SlowK line is above SlowD line.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. The short term trend is DOWN. SlowK was down this bar for the first time in a while. Its possible that we may see a down move here. if next bar's SlowK is also down, then a possible top may have been established. The market looks weak both long term and short term. The SlowK is at (65.86). A good downward move is possible without SlowK being oversold.

Swing Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The swing index is most often used to identify bars where the market is likely to change direction. A signal is generated when the swing index crosses zero. No signal has been generated here.

Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

Volatility Indicator: Volatility is trending up based on a 9 bar moving average.

Volume Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.

Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is UP. A bearish key reversal off a 5 bar new high here here suggests a decline, and decreasing volume supports the likelihood of a downturn in the market.

RSI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 48.76). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat oversold (RSI is at 48.76). However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence here before getting too bullish here.

ADX Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is falling.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is down. A falling ADX indicates that the current trend is weakening and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppy market ahead.

Comm Channel Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: CCI (18.12) is in neutral territory. A signal is generated only when the CCI crosses above or below the neutral center region.

Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (18.12) is currently long. The current long position position will be reversed when the CCI crosses below zero. The market just signaled a bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high, suggesting closing any long positions here.

DMI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: DMI+ is less than DMI-, indicating a downward trending market. A signal is generated when DMI+ crosses DMI-.

Additional Analysis: DMI is in bearish territory.

MACD Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bullish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the MacdMA may indicate a short term decline within the next few bars. A bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high here confirms this bearish outlook.

Momentum Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (-1.22) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is in bearish territory. And, a bearish key reversaloff a 9 bar new high here suggests a downside move is likely.

Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average. While this is normal following delivery of nearer term contracts, be cautious. Decreasing open interest indicates lower liquidity.

Rate of change Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (-0.86) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Rate of Change is in bearish territory. And, a bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high here suggests a downside move is likely.

Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.