Analysis
Fri 6/14/13
Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: Price is above the moving average so the trend is up.
Additional Analysis: Market trend is UP.
Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:
Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average
Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.
Additional Analysis - Short Term: The market is EXTREMELY BULLISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to higher prices: the fast average is above the slow average; the fast average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; and price is above the fast average and the slow average.
Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.
Additional Analysis - Long Term: The market is EXTREMELY BULLISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to higher prices: the fast average is above the slow average; the fast average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; and price is above the fast average and the slow average.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an overbought market. An overbought reading occurs when the close is nearer to the top band than the bottom band.
Additional Analysis: The market is overbought and appears to be encountering resistance. Look for a top in this area. Confirming this, the market just signaled a bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high.
Volatility Indicator: Volatility is trending up based on a 9 bar moving average.
Momentum Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (154.75) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is indicating an overbought market. And, a bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high here suggests a downside move is possible.
Rate of change Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (11.36) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Rate of Change is indicating an overbought market. And, a bear key reversal off a 9 bar new high here suggests a downside move is possible.
Comm Channel Index Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: CCI (142.19) recently crossed above the buy line into bullish territory, and is currently long. This long position should be liquidated when the CCI crosses back into the neutral center region.
Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation,CCI (142.19) is bullish, but has begun showing some weakness. Begin looking for an attractive point to liquidate long positions and return to the sidelines.
RSI Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 56.16). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.
Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat overbought (RSI is at 56.16) suggesting a possible market decline. Further, a bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high here makes a downturn in the market even more likely
MACD Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bullish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. MACD is in bullish territory. However, the market just signaled a bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high.
Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is trending up based on a 9 bar moving average. This is normal as delivery approaches and indicates increased liquidity.
Volume Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.
Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is UP. A bearish key reversal off a 5 bar new high here here suggests a decline.
Stochastic - Fast Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed below the SlowD line; this indicates a sell signal. The stochastic is in overbought territory (SlowK is at 80.70); this indicates a possible market drop is coming.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. SlowK is showing the market is overbought. Look for a top soon. The short term trend is DOWN. SlowK was down this bar for the first time in a while. Its possible that we may see a down move here. if next bar's SlowK is also down, then a possible top may have been established.
Stochastic - Slow Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is in overbought territory (SlowK is at 81.30); this indicates a possible market drop is coming.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. SlowK is showing the market is overbought. Look for a top soon. The short term trend is DOWN. SlowK was down this bar for the first time in a while. Its possible that we may see a down move here. if next bar's SlowK is also down, then a possible top may have been established.
Swing Index Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The swing index has crossed zero, identifying this bar as a short term pivot point.
Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.
Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice. | 
