Stocks to Use Ratio

Stocks to Use Ratio

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The Stocks to Use Ratio is a convenient measure of supply and demand interrelationships of commodities. The stocks to use ratio indicates the level of carryover stock for any given commodity as a percentage of the total demand or use. The mathematical formula for this relationship is as follows

Beginning Stock + Total Production - Total Use


Total Use

This can be simplified by consolidating the upper portion of the relationship to:

Carryover  x 100  = Stocks To Use Ratio

   
Total Use
   

Using the long hand formula, beginning stocks represent the previous year's ending or carryover inventories. Total production represents the total grain produced in a given year. Total usage is the sum of all the end uses in which the stock of grain has been consumed. This would include human consumption, export programs, seed, waste, dockage and feed consumption. By adding carry-over stocks to the total production you will obtain the total supply. From the total supply, subtract the total use and the resultant figure will be the year ending carryover stock. The carryover stock divided by the total usage can be expressed as a ratio which when compared with previous years gives the market analyst an indication of the relative supply/demand balance for a particular commodity. This ratio can then be used to indicate whether current and projected stock levels are critical or plentiful.The ratio can also be used to indicate how many days of supply is available to the world marketplace under current usage patterns.( eg. a 20% stocks to use ratio for wheat indicates that there are 75 days supply of wheat in reserve)

By comparing the current year's stocks to use ratio with years when carryover stocks were below normal as well as years when carryover stocks were above normal , you will be able to develop an estimate as to the direction of the price trend as well as the probable extent of price change whether higher or lower. Some bench mark ratios can be established for various crops by reviewing historical stocks to use data. On a world basis a stocks/use ratio for wheat under 20% has typically led to strong price advances. For corn, the comparable number appears to be under 12% . For soybeans, the critical level is below 10%. It is useful to calculate stocks to use ratios for different crops and compare these projections with historical averages provided by the Canada Grains Council Statistical Handbook, as well as other publications such as the USDA situation and outlook reports, and Specialty Crop Publications. By reviewing past data and estimating the current year's stocks/use ratios on a crop by crop basis, appropriate production/marketing strategies can be developed.

Example: Canola
Year

Beginning
Stock

Total
Production
Total
Use
Carryover
Stock
1983/84
486
2,599
2,965
120
1990/91
749
3,266
3.635
380
10-year Average
623
3,407
3,425
605
Stocks to Use Ratio
1983/84
486+2599-2965
 = 4%

2965
Ave. Vancouver Cash
Year 1990/91
486+2599-2965
 = 4%

2965
Ave Vancouver Cash Price: $287.20
10-year Average
486+2599-2965
 = 4%

2965
10-year Ave. Cash Price: $324.69

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