Oct 17, 2025 (MarketLine via COMTEX) --
There was an overall decline in crude oil prices during the week due to the ongoing US-China trade dispute that flared again over rare earth minerals. In a tit-for-tat measure, China banned its entities from doing business with five subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean and announced additional port charges for US-linked ships visiting the country. Thesedevelopments sparked concerns over the outlook for trade and oil consumption, thereby pushing down prices. Prices were also weighed down by an outlook for a crude oil glut in global market amid rising OPEC+ production and sluggish demand. Elsewhere, the US pushed ahead on peace talks with Russia on securing an end to conflict with Ukraine, thereby limiting the upside to oil prices. Prices also came under pressure from the rising US crude oil production and the subsequent expansion in the countryaEUR(TM)s weekly commercial crude stockpiles.
Some key factors that led to changes in crude oil prices this week are as follows:
- Oil prices rose slightly on Monday, supported by prospects of US-China trade talks that might also involve rare earth
minerals – a topic of the latest trade flare up between the two countries. The heads of the US and China are likely to
meet along the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Conference in South Korea from October 27 to November 1, 2025.
It might help to finalize the tariffs for bilateral trade, thus improving the outlook for oil demand. Prices also received
support from new US sanctions on entities trading in Iranian crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). This included
an oil terminal at the Lanshan port in China and a teapot refiner named the Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical. However,
the upside to prices was somewhat contained by expectations of an end to the Israel-Gaza conflict after Hamas released
its first group of seven hostages in accordance with the ceasefire agreement.
- Oil prices dipped on Tuesday and Wednesday, weighed down by renewed worries over a trade war between the US and
China. In response to a US investigation into the dominance of the Chinese shipbuilding industry, China imposed
sanctions on five US-based subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean – the leading shipbuilder from South Korea – citing national
security concerns. China also levied reciprocal charges on ships owned or operated by US entities docking at the
country’s ports. These charges were applicable from October 14, 2025 – the same date when the US port fees on Chinese
vessels came into effect. This escalating trade dispute prompted the International Energy Agency (IEA) to forecast a
surplus crude oil scenario for 2026, thus pressuring prices further down. In its latest outlook, the IEA indicated that there
could be up to four million barrels per day (bpd) of oversupply for crude oil next year as demand growth remained
constrained by trade and economic uncertainties.
- Oil prices declined on Thursday, weighed down by renewed efforts to ease the tensions in the protracted Russian-
Ukraine conflict. The US President Trump held brief talks with the Russian President Putin regarding a ceasefire and
agreed to a meet in Budapest, Hungary for further discussions. This development raised hopes of a probable halt of
Ukrainian attacks on the Russian oil infrastructure, thus alleviating the risks to exports from this major producer. Prices
were also weighed down due to increase in weekly crude inventory in the US. According to the US Energy Information
Administration (EIA), crude stockpiles in the country were up by 3.5 million barrels for the week ending on October 10,
2025. A crucial factor in this increase was the sustained rise in the country’s crude oil output, which hit a new record of
13.636 million barrels per day (bpd) in the past week.
- Oil prices rose slightly on Friday, supported by a notable decline in crude oil production from OPEC+ member, Azerbaijan.
The country reported that it produced nearly 900,000 metric tons, or 4.2% less during January to September 2025
compared to last year, especially when the rest of the group was raising during this period. Prices also received some
support from new sanctions by the UK on Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil. Nevertheless, the upside to prices
was weighed down by the recent ceasefire in Gaza and upcoming peace talks over conflict in Ukraine.
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COMTEX_469930387/2227/2025-10-31T09:38:38
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