Oct 03, 2025 (MarketLine via COMTEX) --
There was an overall decline in crude oil prices this week on worries over rising global crude oil supply amid demand weaknesses in key markets. The Iraq-Turkey pipeline resumed oil exports after a pause in operations lasting over two years, thereby increasing the supply of crude to global markets. This was in addition to the monthly production increases announced by the OPEC+ group since April 2025, with another expected for November, potentially leading to surplus crude availability. Prices also faced pressure from possible easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, following the US and Israel's push for a ceasefire in Gaza, accompanied by the announcement of a detailed plan for its reconstruction. Additionally, prices were also weighed down by faltering energy demand outlook in the US amid a government shut down.
Some key factors that led to changes in crude oil prices this week are as follows:
Oil prices fell on Monday, weighed down by prospects of a crude oil glut in global markets due to rising crude oil supplies from the OPEC+ group. Several reports indicated that the OPEC+ was likely to announce further hike to its collective output when it reviews its production policy on October 5, 2025. Besides, crude oil flows from the Kurdistan region of Iraq commenced after a gap of over two years, thereby adding more supplies to the market and weighing on oil prices. The region can export up to 230,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil at full capacity through the Turkish port of Ceyhan.Oil prices slid further on Tuesday, weighed down by growing hopes of a hostage exchange and ceasefire deal in the Gaza conflict. The US and Israel jointly unveiled a ceasefire and rehabilitation plan that was well received by the Palestinian Authority and several countries from the international community. It could pave the way for restoration of peace in the region and potentially alleviate the risks to maritime trade, including oil supplies along the Red Sea route. Prices were also weighed down by the imminent US government shutdown and its likely impact on domestic consumption. Oil prices extended their fall on Wednesday and Thursday, weighed down by concerns over surplus crude oil in global markets. In view of the forthcoming OPEC+ production policy meet, some media reports speculated that the group may opt to hike its production for November 2025 by a large volume of around 500,000 barrels per day (bpd). This was much higher than last month’s announcement for a 137,000-bpd increase to the group’s output for October 2025. The supply concerns were compounded following a weekly build in the US crude inventory. As per the EIA, crude stockpiles in the country grew by 1.8 million barrels due to a decline in exports for the week ending on September 26, 2025. Gasoline and distillate stocks also rose during the same week by 4.1 million barrels and 600,000 barrels, respectively, to pressure prices further down. Besides, a funding crunch led to the shutdown of the US government and weighed on oil prices. Oil prices rose slightly on Friday, supported by the prevailing risks to oil infrastructure in Russia amid the Ukraine conflict. While Russia’s refineries and oil terminals came under drone attacks during the week, a media report revealed that the US has started providing intelligence support to Ukraine for conducting long-range strikes within Russia. This raised the threat to Russian energy assets and heightened the possibility of crude supply disruption from this major producer. Nevertheless, the upside to prices was largely contained by prospects of a ceasefire in the Gaza conflict after reports indicated that Hamas were considering the US and Israeli proposal over a peace deal.
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COMTEX_469397805/2227/2025-10-09T16:55:39
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