Nov 07, 2025 (MarketLine via COMTEX) --
Overall crude oil prices decreased during the week due to worries on crude oil glut, as supply remained resilient while global economic uncertainty weighed on the demand outlook. The OPEC+ group agreed over another increase to their monthly production target, taking its cumulative hike to around 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) for this year. Besides, the US crude oil production continued to rise, thus further adding to the supply in the market. On the demand side, slowing industrial activity in major economies such as the US and Japan led to consumption worries and pressured oil prices. A protracted shut down of the US government also weighed down prices as it impacted diverse sectors, including air travel. However, the slide in prices was somewhat mitigated during the week by heightened threat to the Russian energy supplies from the Ukrainian drones strikes and the simmering US-Venezuela geopolitical tensions.
Some key factors that led to changes in crude oil prices this week are as follows:
Oil prices dipped slightly on Monday, weighed down by prospects of crude oil oversupply in global markets. The OPEC+ group announced additional output hike of 137,000 bpd for December 2025 to its collective target. The group also stated that it would not make any further production increases during Q1 2026 in line with seasonal factors. Besides, surging US crude oil production added to worries over global surplus crude availability and pressured prices further down. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that the country’s crude oil production hit a new record of around 13.8 million bpd in August 2025. However, the slide in oil prices was limited to a considerable extent by the recurring Ukrainian strikes on the Russian energy assets, leading to disruptions in the country’s exports. The latest wave of drone attacks was launched on the Tuapse oil export terminal on the Black Sea, causing a fire. Elsewhere, the deployment of the US carrier strike group near Venezuela under the command of its largest aircraft carrier, Gerald Ford, led to speculations over a regime change attempt in this oil-rich country and mitigated the fall in prices.Oil prices dipped further on Tuesday and Wednesday, weighed down by slowing industrial and services activity in key markets around the world. An independent survey indicated a sizable drop in factory output from Japan in October 2025 due to sluggish demand from key markets, including automotive and semiconductors. It estimated that the manufacturing sector grew at the slowest pace in nearly 19 months. The US manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) decreased last month to 48.7 due to tariff worries, which was well below the expansion benchmark of 50.0. Prices were also weighed down by the rising US dollar that made crude purchases more expensive to buyers from importers trading in other currencies. Additionally, the US crude inventory grew on a weekly basis, thus pushing prices further down. As per the EIA, crude stockpiles were up by 5.2 million barrels for the week ending on October 31, 2025. Oil prices continued their decline on Thursday, weighed down by signs of weak crude oil demand growth globally amid trade uncertainty from US tariffs. Prominent investment bank JPMorgan estimated that during the first ten months of this year, oil demand had risen by 850,000 bpd, which was below its original estimate of 900,000 bpd. In contrast, the global supply had remained relatively resilient due to rising US crude oil production and rollback of output cuts from the OPEC+ group.Oil prices rose last Friday, supported by ongoing tensions between the West and Russia over the Ukraine conflict. The recent US and European sanctions on Russian crude oil exports would cause some disruption in global oil supplies. Early estimates from port loadings and tanker movements indicated that Russian crude oil shipments to China and India were on a decline following the sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. However, the upside to prices was somewhat curtailed by the prolonged US government shutdown that weighed on domestic fuel demand. The government was compelled to cancel several flights across its major cities due to a shortage of staff to monitor the air traffic.
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COMTEX_470227878/2227/2025-11-13T09:37:38
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