Nov 28, 2025 (MarketLine via COMTEX) --
There was an overall increase in crude oil prices during the week on skepticism over Russia and Ukraine agreeing a peace deal in their protracted conflict. This was due to UkraineaEUR(TM)s stance on giving up territory that is at the center of this conflict and its insistence on receiving security guarantees from the US and the European Union for the future. Nevertheless, the upside to prices was largely contained by hopes that if the two countries do strike a peace deal, it could ease the geopolitical tensions among NATO countries and Russia while also alleviating the risks to the latteraEUR(TM)s energy exports. Prices also received support from speculation over the possibility of the US Federal Reserve slashing the benchmark interest rates during its next fiscal review in December 2025.
Some key factors that led to changes in crude oil prices this week are as follows:
Oil prices rose on Monday, supported by a potential reduction in the US interest rates next month to help propel its economic growth. This possibility was put forward by President of the New York Federal Reserve, John Williams, who supported lower rates for the current macroenvironment. However, a weekly increase in the US oil rig count limited the upside to prices, as it implied a likely rise in the country’s output over the coming weeks. As per the Baker Hughes data, the number of oil-focused operational rigs grew by two during the week ending on November 21, 2025.Oil prices declined on Tuesday, weighed down by growing hopes of a peace deal in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While a US government official indicated that Ukraine had largely agreed to the US framework over the ceasefire, a Ukrainian representative commented that a deal was close, but disagreement remained on some points. Some media reports speculated that President Zelenskiy might meet President Trump in the coming days to sort out those differences. It raised the prospects of a rollback in sanctions on Russia, thereby allowing the country to freely export its crude oil and other commodities around the world and thus weighed down prices. Oil prices rose again on Wednesday, supported by the uncertainty over Ukraine’s acceptance of the US peace proposal. Some Western observers had earlier commented that the original framework drafted by the US was a bit more tilted in favor of Russia. The framework had apparently seen some revisions in the past days, making the peace deal more likely. Nevertheless, neither Russia nor Ukraine was yet to accept the terms but had shown willingness to negotiate. Prices also received some support from expectations of the OPEC+ maintaining its production target for January 2026 during its forthcoming meet. The group is scheduled to meet this Sunday, November 30, 2025, to finalize its production policy for January. However, the gains in oil prices were somewhat contained by a weekly crude inventory build in the US. As per the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, the country’s commercial crude stockpiles were up by 2.8 million barrels for the week ending on November 21, 2025.Oil prices rose slightly last Friday, following the Thanksgiving Day holiday on Thursday, supported by lingering doubts over the US-backed peace proposal for ending the Ukraine conflict. Ukraine indicated that it had reservations over certain points, including surrendering of territories in the proposal and was keen to discuss further to find a solution. On the other hand, Russia insisted on complete withdrawal of Ukrainian armed forces from specific territories to help secure the peace deal. Alternately, the country was willing to continue fighting to win over those territories, thus leaving Ukraine to decide on the outcome of this peace proposal.
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COMTEX_470918385/2227/2025-12-08T05:08:43
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