Oct 10, 2025 (MarketLine via COMTEX) --
Crude oil prices declined during the week on demand worries following a spike in trade tensions among the worldaEUR(TM)s two largest economies aEUR" the US and China. ChinaaEUR(TM)s efforts to limit its exports of rare earth minerals drew strong resistance from the US, with the President threatening with 100% tariffs. Prices were also weighed down by the prospect of supply glut in global markets. The US crude oil production was projected to set a new record this year as per forecasts from the government agency, the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Additionally, the OPEC+ announced another hike to its output for November 2025, although it was notably smaller than the predictions from media outlets earlier. Elsewhere, Israel and Hamas agreed over a ceasefire in the Gaza conflict, which reduced the risks to oil and gas assets in the Middle East region and weighed down prices. Nevertheless, the fall in oil prices was somewhat mitigated by escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict, during which RussiaaEUR(TM)s oil assets such as refineries have increasingly become a target for Ukraine.
Some key factors that led to changes in crude oil prices this week are as follows:
Oil prices rose on Monday, supported by escalating drone and missile attacks across Russia and Ukraine that led to worries over geopolitical stability in the region. Ukraine launched over several drones at Russia, striking various targets including the Kirishi refinery in Leningrad Oblast. It caused a major fire in its distillation unit that might take at least a month for repairs. In response, Russia hit multiple targets damaging buildings and infrastructure across Ukraine. Prices also received support from a weekly fall in the US oil rig fshucount by two during the week ending on October 3, 2025. It implied a likely dip in the country’s crude oil output over the coming weeks. However, the gains in oil prices were somewhat restrained by the latest crude production hike from the OPEC+ group. The group met on October 5, 2025, and agreed to raise its collective output by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) for November 2025.Oil prices rose marginally on Tuesday and then grew further on Wednesday, supported by diminishing hopes of a peace deal in the Ukraine conflict. A Russian government official indicated that the atmosphere seemed somewhat favorable in August 2025 when President Putin met US President Trump in Alaska. But now the situation was no longer conducive for talks, while pointing towards the persistent Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy assets over the past month. Prices also received support from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showing that the total weekly petroleum products supply reached its highest level since 2022 at 21.99 million bpd for the week ending on October 3, 2025. Moreover, the EIA also estimated that the US crude oil production might hit a record high this year, thus eroding some of the gains in oil prices. According to the EIA’s analysis, the country’s crude oil output was anticipated to rise to 13.53 million bpd for 2025, up by around 90,000 bpd over the previous year.Oil prices fell on Thursday and Friday, weighed down by concerns that the US might reignite its tariff dispute with China, due to the latter’s new restrictions on export of rare earth minerals. The US President Trump reiterated the possibility of imposing high tariffs on imports from China over this issue, which could hamper bilateral trade. Prices were also weighed down by a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza conflict after Hamas agreed to the recent proposal from the US and Israel. A halt in this conflict might ease the risk of Houthi attacks to cargo ships plying along the coast of Yemen, besides bringing greater stability in the Middle East region. Additionally, prices were pressured by a weekly US crude inventory build. According to the EIA, crude stockpiles in the country rose by 3.7 million barrels for the week ending on October 3, 2025.
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COMTEX_469562810/2227/2025-10-16T09:37:23
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