Sep 26, 2025 (MarketLine via COMTEX) --
Crude oil prices increased overall during the week amid heightened risks to Russian energy infrastructure from Ukrainian drones. Several crude oil processing and export facilities across Russia came under attacks in the past week, thereby lowering the availability of crude oil and fuels in global markets. It compelled Russia to impose limits on fuel exports for 2025 to address the damages to its refineries and distribution infrastructure. Prices also received support from promising data on the US economic growth during April-June 2025.
Some key factors that led to changes in crude oil prices this week are as follows:
Oil prices dipped slightly on Monday, weighed down by concerns over rising crude oil output from the OPEC+ group that could cause an oversupply in global markets. Kuwait, an OPEC+ member, revealed that its production capacity at the moment is around 3.2 million barrels per day (bpd) – its highest in over a decade. Another member Iraq announced that its crude oil export increased lately and estimates them to be at 3.4 million bpd for September 2025. Besides, the US Federal Reserve dashed hopes of more rate cuts in the near future, pushing the prices further down. However, the downside to prices was restrained to a large extent by tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In a recent attack, the Gazprom operated Salavat integrated refining and petrochemical complex in Russia was hit by multiple Ukrainian drones, leading to damages. Also, Russian fighter jets reportedly breached Estonian air space for a brief duration, prompting NATO troops to scramble their planes as a precautionary measure. Oil prices gained on Tuesday and Wednesday, supported by prospects of a decline in crude oil and fuel exports from Russia due to outages from Ukrainian drone attacks. Ukraine continued to target Russian oil assets and port infrastructure, striking facilities in regions, such as Bryansk, Samara, Volgograd, and Krasnodar Krai. One of these attacks disrupted port operations in the critical Black Sea terminal of Novorossiisk. Prices also received fillip after the US President Trump altered his earlier position on the peace deal and instead hoped that perhaps Ukraine would win back its lost territories. Prices also received support from weekly crude inventory draw in the US. Data from the latest EIA report showed that the country’s crude stockpiles had declined by 607,000 barrels for the week ending on September 19, 2025. Elsewhere, challenges with US permits compelled Chevron to reduce its exports of Venezuelan crude, giving additional support to prices. Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday and then rose further on Friday, supported by signs of growing disruption to energy exports from Russia due to repeated Ukrainian strikes on its infrastructure. Russia announced restrictions on diesel exports until December 2025 due to refinery outages following the drone attacks. The country also prolonged an existing ban on gasoline exports at least till the end of this year to support domestic commitments. Prices also received some support from an upward revision to the US gross domestic product (GDP) for Q2 2025, thus implying healthy economic growth. The latest estimates from the country’s Commerce Department indicated that the GDP for the last quarter grew by 3.8% year-on-year, up from 3.3%. However, this positive data led to speculation that the US Federal Reserve might retain the current interest rates in its next fiscal review meet, thus limiting gains in prices. Besides, the upside to prices was also contained by the resumption in crude oil exports from the autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq. Supplies from this region were set to restart after a two-year halt following an agreement over payments among oil companies, and the governments of Iraq and Kurdistan.
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COMTEX_469317851/2227/2025-10-06T09:38:00
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