Jan 13, 2026 (MarketLine via COMTEX) --
The announcement came just weeks after Dolf van den Brink set out a new five-year strategy for the Amstel brewer.
Dolf van den BrinkaEUR(TM)s exit from Heineken, announced yesterday (12 January), met with a mixed reaction from industry watchers aEUR" and sparked a drop in the Dutch groupaEUR(TM)s share price.
The announcement came just weeks after van den Brink set out a new five-year strategy for the Amstel brewer, a blueprint analysts believe his successor should follow, though they warn any new Heineken CEO will have to wrestle with aEUR" and react to aEUR" the wider issues faced by the world's beer giants.
Bernstein analyst Trevor Stirling said the news came aEURoeunexpectedlyaEUR while his counterpart at RBC Capital Markets, James Edwardes Jones, argued the move aEURoeis not a surpriseaEUR.
Van den Brink, who has been Heineken's CEO for almost six years, is stepping down from the Amstel and Sol brewer at the end of May.
In a statement, Heineken said van den Brink had aEURoeconcluded, in consultation with the supervisory board, that this is the right time to hand over his responsibilitiesaEUR.
The Desperados brand owneraEUR(TM)s share price dropped nearly 4% yesterday following the announcement. The price has rallied slightly this morning but was still down 0.95% at 11:01 GMT today.
Market joltFernand de Boer, an analyst covering Heineken for Degroof Petercam, said the news of van den Brink's departure was particularly unexpected given the groupaEUR(TM)s launch of the new five-year plan, dubbed EverGreen 2030, in October.
However, the surprise at the announcement alone is not what hit HeinekenaEUR(TM)s share price yesterday, de Boer suggested.
aEURoePeople are making the [connection] with the timing of the announcement, saying aEUR~Okay, 2025 is major disappointment and could we now expect they're going to miss on their numbers and creating uncertainty."
In October, Heineken reduced its sales volumes guidance for 2025, forecasting it will aEURoedecline modestlyaEUR after a aEURoechallengingaEUR third quarter.
The company also said it was expecting its organic operating profit to land aEURoetowards the lower endaEUR of its target of 4-8% growth. Heineken is set to announce its 2025 financial results next month.
Stirling stressed yesterday's announcement may have created some uncertainty among investors but he didnaEUR(TM)t necessarily see the move indicating a major problem internally.
aEURoeSometimes the share price then falls because it reflects the fact that they're worried about there's a big problem coming in the company, or Dolf has been fired and there's something about to blow up," he told Just Drinks.
aEURoeI don't think that's the case but I think there is uncertainty. We've seen how difficult management transitions can beaEUR The markets understand we're a bit nervous until it will be announced who exactly is DolfaEUR(TM)s successor and that they're confident that that [they are] up to the taskaEUR.
An aEURoeextremely turbulentaEUR periodVan den Brink faced plenty of hurdles in his tenure since being promoted to Heineken CEO in the middle of 2020.
aEURoeItaEUR(TM)s a complete understatement to say that the six years since have been extremely turbulent,aEUR Stirling said, noting not only major changes at Heineken but the external issues faced by the whole sector from Covid-19 to RussiaaEUR(TM)s invasion of Ukraine.
The launch of Heineken's initial EverGreen strategy in 2021 included restructuring cost cuts. In October, when unveiling EverGreen 2030, the company announced plans for more job cuts. Meanwhile, van den Brink's time at the helm has seen three major acquisitions, including, most recently, the $3.2bn deal for a clutch of beer, soft drinks and retail assets in Central America announced in September.
While van den Brink was in charge, Heineken has seen generated organic net revenue growth every year besides the Covid-hit 2020. Growth, however, has eased in recent quarters. Volumes have been mostly positive, aside from 2023 where difficult economic conditions pulled on beer volumes in Vietnam and Nigeria.
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Under van den Brink's leadership, as well as the recent deal for FIFCO's assets in Central America, Heineken's inorganic growth has included the twin dealsAfor a majority stake in South AfricaaEUR(TM)s Distell in 2021 and the acquisition of Namibia Breweries, plus the move to buy majority control of India's United Breweries in the same year.
Like its global brewing peers, Heineken has also sought to move 'beyond beer', with deals ranging from minority stakes in businesses including UK energy-drinks firm Tenzing and Dutch ready-to-drink brand StA"lz to the deal with FIFCO, which including soft-drinks assets in Costa Rica and a local PepsiCo licence.
Nonetheless, RBCaEUR(TM)s Edwardes Jones compares the "total shareholder return" delivered by Heineken under van den Brink unfavourably with some of its rivals.
"He arrived with high expectations but Heineken has not delivered on them," Edwardes Jones said yesterday. "Since 1 June 2020 when he was appointed, Heineken has delivered a TSR of -9%, significantly underperforming peers ABI (+36%) and Carlsberg (+12%), as well as the MSCI European consumer staples sector as a whole (+22%)."
Kevin Baker, head of beer and cider research at GlobalData, Just DrinksaEUR(TM) parent, takes a more positive stance.
aEURoeOverall, it could be argued that Heineken has outperformed most of its competitors in terms of volume and recent acquisitions (Distell in Africa; FIFCO in Central America) have made solid commercial and strategic senseaEUR, he says.
Dolf van den Brink took the helm at Heineken in June 2020. Credit: Heineken
Business as usual?Heineken said yesterday its supervisory board will start a search process to identify and appoint a successor.
In a note, Jefferies analysts said they aEURoedo not anticipate a major change in strategyaEUR and that there is aEURoea low risk of kitchen sinking from incoming leadershipaEUR.
They added van den Brink had aEURoedone the hard yardsaEUR on the company's strategy, and that aEURoenow it is a case of further executing the strategy to drive value at HeinekenaEUR.
There is a belief the groupaEUR(TM)s recently launched EverGreen 2030 initiative should be a priority for the new CEO.
aEURoeWe still think Heineken's strategy laid out at the capital markets day to increasingly focus on ROIC, spread more investments towards other global brands and improve data-stifling productivity is the right one, but execution has been wanting in our view,aEUR Edwardes Jones said. aEURoePerhaps this change at the top is what Heineken needs.aEUR
The new five-year plan includes a major restructure at its Amsterdam HQ in October and a focus on a group of brands in 17 markets worldwide. The brands include Heineken, Bia Moretti and Amstel, as well as 25 so-called local names like Kingfisher and Sagres.
Stirling also shared his confidence in the strategy, arguing the EverGreen 2030 programme aEURoemakes senseaEUR.
He added: aEURoeVery simplistically, itaEUR(TM)s growing volumes in emerging markets where thereaEUR(TM)s high intrinsic growth in the category and then itaEUR(TM)s basically growing premium brands everywhere.aEUR
Beyond aEUR~EverGreen 2030aEUR(TM)While analysts are confident in the EverGreen 2030 strategy van den Brink helped to devise, HeinekenaEUR(TM)s next CEO will still have plenty of hurdles to face.
As GlobalDataaEUR(TM)s Baker says, the macro challenges at Heineken are not much different to those its competitors are facing aEUR" aEURoethe decline in session drinking; health concerns and a growing anti-alcohol lobby; challenge from categories beyond beer (especially pre-mixed spirits and adult soft drinks);Aand of course, the prevailing geopolitical and economic environmentaEUR. In some ways, the Evergreen 2030 strategy can be seen as a response to all of these industry-wide challenges.
When it comes to global markets, most recently Heineken has seen weakness in the Americas. In the quarter to the end of September, Brazil and the US in particular weighed on its sales.
An industry analyst who wished not to be named told Just Drinks they thought the US needs to be a focus for HeinekenaEUR(TM)s next CEO, given the country is a major market for the group but it doesnaEUR(TM)t have any production facilities there. A
aEURoeThey have a different business set-up than AB InBev has but AB InBev has brought Stella to the US [and] they're producing it now on the ground, which with tariffs, with logistics, with everything, is a much better proposition than Heineken shipping it from Zouterwoude,aEUR the analyst said.
aEURoeAnd when you talk to [Heineken], they say aEUR~Well, if we start to produce it in the USA, we don't have the capacity over there and we have a big problem as in Zoutwerwoude half of the beer that we make is destined for the American market.aEUR
The debate about whether the recent declines in alcohol consumption are cyclical or structural has raged for a while now. However, analysts do believe consumers are going to continue to drink less in the future and that now is the right time for Heineken to follow the lead of some of its competitors and make deeper strides outside beer.
Credit: STR/NurPhoto via Getty ImagesAt Degroof Petercam, de Boer says HeinekenaEUR(TM)s growth plan aEURoeis about rightaEUR but underlines the group should be thinking aEURoeabout health, ageing population, the health trendsaEUR and what effect they might have on alcohol consumption.
Heineken has a strong presence in the still small (but growing) market for non-alcoholic beer. Its Heineken 0.0 brand is one of the most widely available non-alc beer brands worldwide, sold in over 110 markets.
However, some in the industry feel Heineken should consider following its peers and further expand its presence outside of beer.
De Boer added: aEURoeYou see the Danish guys, Carlsberg, they made the acquisition in the UK in soft drinks. So, what is the right strategy going forward? I think that should be an important one.
aEURoeAnd the second thing is if you think about the setback in the valuation of the entire beer categoryaEUR their attitude or the perception of them being a growth company is over.aEUR
The unnamed industry analyst said they believe there are opportunities for Heineken aEUR~beyond beeraEUR(TM), pointing to its existing tie-ups with PepsiCo.
aEURoeA beer company like Heineken could be like a great partner for PepsiCo in more countries. There are definitely opportunities for Heineken to work closer together with soft drink companies and utilise that fantastic footprint that they have across the world and I think that the new CEO will definitely have to look at that,aEUR they said.
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