Jul 30, 2025 (Baystreet.ca via COMTEX) --
Portugal's Galp Energia has begun receiving offers for its massive Mopane oil discovery off Namibia's coast, signaling that one of Africa's most promising new hydrocarbon frontiers could be edging closer to commercial production. The company told investors earlier this month it's in advanced talks with potential buyers and expects to announce a sale later this year. Galp controls an 80% stake in Mopane and, according to Bloomberg, is preparing for a development that could involve two floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) units, each pumping around 120,000 barrels a day.
That's a meaningful step forward for a country that only started grabbing oil industry headlines in 2022. Located in Namibia's Orange Basin, the Mopane field sits in an increasingly crowded zone that has drawn aggressive exploration by Shell, TotalEnergies, Chevron, and others. Galp's early data suggests Mopane could hold at least 10 billion barrels of oil--one of the largest deepwater discoveries in recent African history.
Meanwhile, TotalEnergies is moving forward with its Venus discovery, one of Namibia's other marquee projects. The French major plans to make a final investment decision in early 2026, with first oil targeted by 2029. The project will include a single FPSO capable of producing around 150,000 barrels a day. Total CEO Patrick Pouyanne told reporters the project is technically challenging but commercially viable, citing expected breakeven costs of just $20 per barrel, even in ultra-deep waters 3,000 meters below the surface.
The rush to develop offshore Namibia is partly driven by a global oil industry increasingly hungry for low-cost, scalable reserves. As onshore fields mature and geopolitical risks rise in traditional production zones, frontier deepwater finds like Mopane and Venus are receiving fresh attention. Namibia's pro-investment stance, favorable fiscal regime, and political stability have helped its rise as a credible energy prospect.
But technical and geological hurdles are starting to show. Namibia's subsurface is less favorable than Guyana's, with lower permeability rocks and a higher gas-to-oil ratio that complicates flow rates and requires costly gas re-injection. In January, Shell took a $400 million write-down on its Jonker-1 well in the Orange Basin, saying the find was unlikely to be commercialized. Chevron also came up dry in its Kapana 1-X well within Block 2813B, though the company said geological data collected was valuable for future targeting.
Total has also relinquished several offshore blocks, including 5/6/7, while retaining deepwater acreage it considers more prospective. These setbacks have caused investors to recalibrate expectations for the basin. "I think the hype was too high, right, so we need to lower our expectations," Namibia's central bank Governor Johannes !Gawaxab told Bloomberg.
Despite the challenges, momentum is building behind a handful of anchor projects. Shell's Graff and Jonker discoveries, Galp's Mopane, and TotalEnergies' Venus could collectively turn Namibia into a mid-tier oil producer by the mid-2030s. Industry analysts now forecast peak output between 300,000 and 400,000 barrels per day, which is less than Guyana's explosive trajectory but still a significant step up for a country that produced zero oil just three years ago.
Infrastructure will be key. Namibia lacks the deepwater pipelines, refineries, and port capacity of more established producers. Most operators are planning offshore FPSOs to sidestep onshore limitations, but those units will require financing, fabrication, and export solutions. Galp has not disclosed potential offtake partners, but industry watchers expect interest from Asian and European refiners looking to diversify away from Russian and Middle Eastern crude.
Financing is also top of mind. While majors like TotalEnergies and Shell can self-fund early-stage development, smaller players like Galp often rely on joint ventures, asset sales, or sovereign wealth funds to shoulder multibillion-dollar capex. Namibia's government has so far avoided demands for high state participation but is eyeing new royalty and tax revenues to boost domestic spending. According to Namibia's Petroleum Commissioner, the country could earn over $5 billion annually at peak production levels if key projects come online.
The broader hope is that oil development can deliver long-term economic transformation. Namibia has one of the highest unemployment rates in Africa and relies heavily on mining, tourism, and agriculture. Energy officials have stressed the need to avoid a resource curse and are reportedly working with development banks and Norwegian advisers to design revenue-sharing mechanisms and sovereign investment vehicles.
If Galp succeeds in closing a sale and Total moves ahead on schedule, Namibia could see its first barrels by 2027, barely five years after its deepwater potential became widely recognized. That's an aggressive timeline, but one that energy investors are watching closely. In an era of tightening supply and rising geopolitical risk, Namibia's deepwater riches could offer rare breathing room for a stretched global oil market.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
COMTEX_467669894/2559/2025-07-30T06:43:06
