Jul 11, 2025 (MarketLine via COMTEX) --
The organisation has raised its long-term outlook, driven by increased consumption in developing nations, and sees no evidence of a peak in oil usage.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised its oil demand forecasts for the next four years, indicating a slower growth trajectory as Chinese economic expansion decelerates.
Despite this, the organisation has raised its long-term outlook, driven by increased consumption in developing nations, and sees no evidence of a peak in oil usage, reported Reuters.
According to OPEC's 2025 World Oil Outlook, global demand is projected to average 105 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2026.
The forecast for 2026 has been adjusted downward to an average of 106.3mbpd, from 108mbpd anticipated last year, with a further decrease to 111.6mbpd by 2029, which is 700,000bpd lower than the previous year's projection.
However, growth in China, a long-time driver of oil consumption, is expected to slow due to factors such as economic trends, the rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), and continued substitution of oil in various sectors.
OPEC secretary general Haitham Al Ghais was quoted as saying, aEURoeOil underpins the global economy and is central to our daily lives. There is no peak oil demand on the horizon.aEUR
This view contrasts with other organisations such as BP and the International Energy Agency, which predict oil demand will peak this decade.
The report, unveiled at the biennial OPEC seminar in Vienna, also highlighted the completion of demand recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic and a more stable outlook moving forward.
The OPEC+ group is increasing oil production to reclaim market share after previous reductions aimed at stabilising prices.
These adjustments come amid a challenging medium-term demand landscape that could complicate efforts to phase out remaining production cuts set to expire by the end of 2026.
OPEC+ began to ease output restrictions, implementing production increases since April.
However, additional cuts totalling 3.65mbpd remain in effect until the end of 2026, with no current discussions on releasing this extra supply.
Long-term demand is influenced by various factors, including the US withdrawal from the United Nations climate agreement and a slower EV uptake in Europe, potentially impacting the energy transition in energy-dependent developing regions.
OPEC forecasts that countries such as India, the Middle East, and Africa will be key drivers of future demand growth.
The organisation predicts global oil demand will reach 122.9mbpd by 2050, an upward revision from last year's estimate of 120.1mbpd, significantly surpassing other industry projections such as BP's.
The organisation also calls for increased investment in the oil industry, estimating a need for $18.2tn in spending through 2050, up from the $17.4tn figure cited last year.
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COMTEX_467226453/2227/2025-07-11T09:35:01
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