Dec 20, 2024 (MENAFN via COMTEX) --
(MENAFN - Daily Forex)
Following the reaction to yesterday's US Federal Reserve announcement and today's Bank of Japan announcement, bulls have found strong opportunities to push the USD/JPY currency pair towards the resistance level of 156.68 at the time of writing this analysis. Near its highest in five months, pressures increased on the Japanes Yen after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady as expected.
US Federal Reserve Cautiously Cuts Interest Rates
The US Federal Reserve announced another 25-basis point cut in the US interest rate in December 2024, marking the third consecutive cut this year and reducing borrowing costs to a range of 4.25%-4.5%, in line with expectations. The so-called dot plot indicates that policymakers now expect only two interest rate cuts in 2025, totalling 50 basis points, compared to the full percentage point of cuts expected in the previous quarter.
The Federal Reserve also revised its GDP growth forecasts upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in September forecasts) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining unchanged at 2% for 2026. Similarly, forecasts for personal consumption expenditure inflation were revised upward for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%). The same trend applies to core personal consumption expenditures, with forecasts raised for 2024 (2.8% vs. 2.6%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.2%), and 2026 (2.2% vs. 2%). On the other hand, the unemployment rate is expected to decline this year (4.2% vs. 4.4%) and in 2025 (4.3% vs. 4.4%) while the forecast for 2026 remained at 4.3%.Bank of Japan Keeps Rates as Expected
In contrast to the US Federal Reserve's decision and expectations of a hike, the Bank of Japan today kept interest rates at around 0.25%, and it was clear to the markets that the Bank of Japan was hesitant to raise interest rates in December due to the possibility of negative outcomes. As Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's minority government is currently negotiating with an opposition party that has warned against raising interest rates too early to ensure support for the next annual budget.
The Governor of the Bank of Japan is looking for the right time to raise interest rates for the third time, as recent economic indicators have shown that Japanese inflation is moving in line with the Bank of Japan's forecasts - a prerequisite for raising interest rates.
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After the completion of the last central bank decisions for this year, the dollar and the
Japanes Yen are expected to move to stronger upward levels, and the peak of 160.00 is not ruled out soon/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
As is clear from the performance on the daily chart above, the USD/JPY will remain bullish, and the chance of a stronger weekly bullish close is currently high. The recent gains are pushing the Relative Strength Index towards the overbought zone, but the MACD indicator still has room to move higher before reaching its peak. The strongest expectations now are for the dollar/yen to move towards the psychological resistance of 160.00, around which Japanese intervention in the
forex markets is often discussed to stop the yen's collapse.
Moreover, this time there is Trump who is fighting countries that intervene to weaken their currency. In general, the dollar/yen will remain on its upward trajectory until the reaction to the announcement of the US GDP growth reading and the number of weekly jobless claims. Finally, the recent performance confirms the strength of our signals to buy the dollar against the yen from every downward level.
EURUSD Chart by TradingView
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