Oct 24, 2025 (Liberian Observer/All Africa Global Media via COMTEX) --
Liberia has never lacked plans. From the days of recovery after the civil war, through glossy "vision" strategies and long-term development agendas, successive governments have promised transformation. Yet, for ordinary Liberians, the question is never about the length of the plan or the number of pages. It is whether those plans actually change lives.
That question is more important than ever as we reflect on the past six years under the Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development (PAPD) and compare it with the new energy introduced by the ARREST/AAID framework of the Boakai administration. The contrast is striking: one period was marked by stalled growth, runaway inflation, and broken promises; the other, though still in its early stages, has already shown signs of stabilization and renewed hope.
So which period is better? Let us examine the evidence. The PAPD Era (2017-2023):
Ambition Without Delivery.
The PAPD was launched with lofty ambitions in 2018. The headline promise was to lift one million Liberians out of poverty. The slogan, "power to the people", resonated across the country. For a moment, Liberians believed they were at the dawn of real change.
But development is not measured in speeches. It is measured in outcomes. And on that test, the PAPD struggled.
Fact Box: PAPD Years (2017-2023)
- GDP growth: Averaged 1-3% (negative in 2019 & 2020)
- Inflation: Peaked at 23% in 2018, stayed above 20% in 2019
- Extreme poverty: Rose to ~41% by 2022
- Fiscal deficit: Frequently above 6% of GDP
First, growth collapsed. After a modest 2.5% expansion in 2017, the economy contracted by 2.5% in 2019 and shrank again in 2020 as COVID-19 compounded domestic weaknesses. Across the period, growth averaged only around 1-3% far below what is needed to lift incomes in a young, rapidly growing population.
Second, inflation became a silent tax on the poor. Prices shot up by 23% in 2018, remained above 20% in 2019, and only began to ease after emergency stabilization measures. For market women, taxi drivers, and young families, this meant that food and rent consumed nearly every dollar earned.
Third, poverty got worse. By 2022, roughly 41% of Liberians were living below the extreme poverty line. That was not only a statistical failure but a human one family sliding deeper into desperation despite grand promises.
Fourth, fiscal discipline went missing. Budget deficits regularly exceeded 6% of GDP, forcing the government into borrowing while leaving critical services underfunded. Teachers went unpaid, hospitals lacked medicine, and local governments were starved of resources.
And then there was governance. Corruption scandals from missing banknotes to unaccounted donor funds eroded trust at home and credibility abroad. For many Liberians, the PAPD became a byword for big talk and little change.
The ARREST/AAID Era (2024-Present): Early Gains, Fragile but Real When Joseph Boakai took office in January 2024, skepticism ran high. Critics doubted whether an aging statesman could reset the country. But the administration moved quickly to frame a new development compact: the ARREST agenda, later reinforced by the AAID strategy. Its focus is sharper--agriculture, roads, the rule of law, education, sanitation, tourism, and investment.
Fact Box: ARREST/AAID Years (2023-2025)
- GDP growth: 4.7% in 2023; projected 5-6% in 2024-25
- Inflation: Down to 10% in 2023; stabilizing at 5-8%
- Extreme poverty: Declined from ~41% (2022) to ~34% (2024)
- Fiscal deficit: Reduced to ~3% of GDP
- Governance: Audits & anti-corruption reforms launched
Growth has bounced back. In 2023, Liberia posted a growth rate of 4.7%. Projections for 2024-25 hover around 5-6% the strongest momentum since the early post-Ebola recovery.
Inflation is finally under control. From a high of over 20% in 2019, it has fallen to 10% in 2023 and is expected to stabilize between 5-8%. For ordinary Liberians, this means their wages stretch further and imported rice does not double in price overnight.
Poverty remains stubbornly high, but there are tentative signs of reversal. Preliminary data suggests extreme poverty declined from around 41% in 2022 to 34% in 2023. That is still unacceptably high, but it signals a turn in the right direction.
Fiscal discipline has been restored. The deficit shrank to about 3% of GDP in 2023, allowing the government to reallocate resources toward roads, schools, and health systems. This is a quiet but crucial victory: no country develops by spending recklessly.
Perhaps most importantly, governance reforms are being felt. Anti-corruption measures, audits of bloated contracts, and moves to strengthen procurement rules are restoring some credibility. International partners are beginning to re-engage with more confidence.
Of course, Liberia's challenges are enormous. Infrastructure gaps remain vast. Youth unemployment is dangerously high. Corruption is far from eradicated. But the early trajectory of the ARREST/AAID framework suggests a country trying to correct course.
Why the Difference?
The contrast between the PAPD years and the current moment is not accidental. Three lessons stand out.
1. Governance matters. Investors, donors, and citizens alike respond to signals of seriousness. When corruption is unchecked, capital flees, and citizens disengage. The Boakai administration's early steps, though imperfect, have sent a message that rules matter again.
2. Focus beats slogans. The PAPD spread itself thin with wide-ranging promises. The ARREST/AAID framework is sharper, concentrating on practical levers like roads, agriculture, and sanitation that touch daily life.
3. Macroeconomic stability is the foundation. Without sound budgets and stable prices, no plan however ambitious can succeed. Liberia is rediscovering this basic truth.
A Crossroads Moment
It would be tempting to declare victory too soon. Liberia has seen reform moments before, only for momentum to fade. The current gains remain fragile. If fiscal discipline slips, if corruption reasserts itself, or if political divisions paralyze reforms, the story could turn sour again.
But Liberia today is in a better place than it was five years ago. For the first time in a while, there is cautious optimism in donor circles, more confidence among investors, and most importantly, a sense among ordinary Liberians that the government is at least trying to deliver.
That is why the comparison between the two periods is not merely academic. It is a reminder that leadership choices matter. Plans must be more than slogans. Outcomes must be measured not in documents but in roads built, inflation tamed, and children in school.
Liberia's future will be written not in strategy papers but in the lived reality of its citizens. On that test, the early scorecard of the ARREST/AAID framework is stronger than that of the PAPD. The challenge now is simple: keep momentum alive, deliver tangible improvements, and prove that this time, the story will end differently.
Because in Liberia, the people have heard enough plans. What they need and what they deserve are results.
COMTEX_469773646/2029/2025-10-24T15:02:33
by Bonokai G. B. Gould, Che
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